电气传动2025，Vol.55Issue(4)：82-90,9.DOI:10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25712
基于ELM与热模型的变压器顶层油温融合预测方法研究
Research on Fusion Prediction of Transformer Top Oil Temperature Based on ELM and Thermal Model
摘要
Abstract
A fusion prediction method was proposed to predict and correct the calculation deviation of the top transformer oil temperature model in IEEE guideline,so as to realize the more precise prediction of the transformer top oil temperature(TOT).Firstly,the characteristics of the transformer TOT model and the extreme learning machine(ELM)prediction model was introduced.Secondly,in order to avoid the problem of slow operation speed caused by double level intelligent prediction,the weighted multi-point extrapolation method combined with the load curve clustering algorithm was used to obtain the future load coefficient of the transformer which introduced as the load prediction level of the model.Finally,based on the calculation of thermal model,which the ELM was used to predict the deviation between the calculated value of thermal model and the measured value,and finally the accurate predicted value of the TOT of the transformer was obtained.The simulation platform was built and the simulation results show that the average prediction error rate of the proposed prediction method is only 0.59%,and the root mean square error is only 0.47℃.Compared with the other three methods,it has higher prediction accuracy and stability.The model training speed and prediction speed are only 1.21 ms and 0.39 ms,respectively,which proves that the fusion prediction model proposed and established has high prediction accuracy,stability and operation speed.关键词
变压器顶层油温/极限学习机/热模型/融合预测/负荷形态聚类Key words
transformer top oil temperature(TOT)/extreme learning machine(ELM)/thermal model/fusion prediction/load morphology clustering分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
晏坤,甘景福,刘洪顺,隋宜臻,贺鹏康..基于ELM与热模型的变压器顶层油温融合预测方法研究[J].电气传动,2025,55(4):82-90,9.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5201031801CR) （5201031801CR）
国网唐山供电公司科技项目(B3010322000N) （B3010322000N）
