摘要
Abstract
Based on the seismic catalogues of the Sichuan-Yunnan region and Yunnan Province,the characteristics of earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.8 or greater in Yunnan since 1900 were statistically analyzed.Additionally,earthquakes with magnitudes of 5 or greater in Yunnan(21°00'-28°30'N,97°30'-105°00'E)from January 1,1965 to December 31,2023 were statistically analyzed.Taking the Chuxiong seismic window and MS≥5.0 earthquakes in northeastern Yunnan as examples,the relationship between MS≥5.0 earthquakes and strong earthquakes in Yunnan was analyzed.The results show that:① Yunnan is currently in the early stage of the fifth active period,and it is preliminarily judged that the possibility of an MS≥6.8 earthquake occurring east of the Red River Fault is relatively high in the future.②Earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.9 or greater in Yunnan are mostly concentrated from November to May of the following year,and the months with a lack of major earthquakes are mostly from August to October.③ When the annual frequency of MS 5.0-5.9 earthquakes in Yunnan reaches 5 or more(double earthquakes and earthquake swarms are counted as one),an MS≥7.0 earthquake usually occurs within 4 to 34.1 months.④ There is a significant correlation between the Chuxiong seismic window and MS≥5.0 earthquakes in northeastern Yunnan and strong earthquakes in Yunnan.Specifically,for every MS≥5.0 earthquake in the Chuxiong seismic window,there is a corresponding MS≥7.0 earthquake in Yunnan,with an interval of 16.6 to 41.8 months;for every MS 5.0-6.5 earthquake in northeastern Yunnan,there is a corresponding MS≥7.0 earthquake in Yunnan,with an interval of 20 days to 47 months.The results of this study can provide a reference for the medium-term prediction of strong earthquakes in Yunnan in the future.关键词
5级地震/强震/危险性/相关性Key words
magnitude 5 earthquakes/strong earthquakes/dangerousness/correlation
