干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(4)：559-570,12.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.428
天山北坡城市群城市韧性时空演变特征及发展趋势预测
Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and development trend prediction of urban resilience of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains
摘要
Abstract
Building resilience in urban agglomerations has become a key focus in urban risk governance research.This study utilizes panel data from 15 cities in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Moun-tains,Xinjiang,China from 2010 to 2022.Based on the DPSR model,an urban resilience evaluation index system is constructed,encompassing four dimensions(driving force,pressure,state,and response)analyzed from a dy-namic perspective.The spatial and temporal evolution of urban resilience is assessed using the entropy method and kernel density estimation.Furthermore,the primary influencing factors are identified through geographical detectors,and future development trends are predicted using a grey prediction model.The results indicate that:(1)From 2010 to 2022,the resilience of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains has significantly improved,forming a spatial pattern characterized by a"core-edge"structure.The western part of Urumqi City has emerged as a high-resilience area,whereas the periphery of the urban agglomeration exhibits lower resilience.(2)When analyzing the factors influencing urban resilience,the response system has consistent-ly exerted a strong impact.Over time,the influence of environmental regulation and ecological pollution indica-tors has increased.Specifically,the total production value of large-scale industrial enterprises,carbon dioxide emissions,the number of utility model patents,the digital financial inclusion index,and general public budget ex-penditures have demonstrated a strong long-term effect on urban resilience in this region.(3)For the period 2023-2027,dynamic predictions suggest that the resilience of the urban agglomeration will improve significant-ly,with cities in the urban agglomeration exhibiting steady growth.Spatially,Urumqi City will continue to lead in resilience levels,further widening interregional disparities.Consequently,the"core-edge"spatial pattern within the region will become more pronounced.These findings provide a theoretical reference for the development planning of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and the enhancement of urban re-silience,thereby strengthening cities'ability to adapt to,recover from,and sustainably develop in response to var-ious disturbances.关键词
城市韧性/DPSR模型/时空演化/灰色预测模型/天山北坡城市群Key words
urban resilience/DPSR model/spatio-temporal evolution/grey prediction models/urban agglom-eration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains引用本文复制引用
黄思源,周书航,董晔..天山北坡城市群城市韧性时空演变特征及发展趋势预测[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(4):559-570,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(42330510)资助 （42330510）
