干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(4)：599-611,13.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.520
基于CMIP6未来情景的伊犁河流域地质灾害危险性评估预测
Geological disaster hazard assessment and prediction in the Ili River Basin based on CMIP6 future scenarios
摘要
Abstract
To assess the impact of future climate change on geological hazard zoning in the Ili River Basin,Xinji-ang,China,climate data from different scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)were selected to analyze climate change characteristics under various shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios from 2021 to 2040.The information quantity-random forest model was employed to conduct the geological hazard assessment and generate a prediction map.The results indicate that:(1)High and extremely high hazard areas are primarily concentrated in northern Yining County,southern Nilka County,and northern Xinyuan County in the middle mountainous hilly regions;debris flow hazard areas are mainly located in southern Zhaosu County,the northern region of Keguqin Mountain in Huocheng County,Hejing County,and the middle-to-high mountainous areas in eastern Nilka County.(2)From 2021 to 2040,the Ili River Basin is projected to ex-perience a general increase in temperature and precipitation,with a maximum annual average temperature rise of approximately 1.53℃and a maximum precipitation increase of about 19.3 mm.(3)Under future SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 scenarios,high-hazard areas for landslides and rockfalls are expected to expand.The severity of landslides in southern Yining County,northern Xinyuan County,and southwestern Nilka County,as well as debris flows in northern Khorgas City and Yining County,is anticipated to worsen,with maximum in-creases of 17.31%and 8.77%,respectively.The findings of this study provide valuable insights for future disaster prevention and mitigation efforts in the Ili River Basin.关键词
CMIP6/地质灾害/危险性预测/气候变化/伊犁河流域Key words
CMIP6/geological disasters/hazard assessment prediction/climate change/Ili River Basin引用本文复制引用
陈世泷,孟庆凯,戴勇,杨立强,吴晗..基于CMIP6未来情景的伊犁河流域地质灾害危险性评估预测[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(4):599-611,13.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0600) （2022xjkk0600）
国家自然科学基金项目(42371091) （42371091）
中国科学院特别资助项目资助 （）
