干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(4)：640-648,9.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.170
未来多情景下柯柯牙工程区水资源脆弱性评价及预测
Assessment and prediction of water resource vulnerability in Kekeya area under the future multi-scenario model
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid economic development and the population growth,the fragility of water resources has become a key constraint on the sustainable development of the Kekeya Project Area in Xinjiang,China.Based on natural,anthropogenic and socio-economic factors,an evaluation index system of water resource fragility was constructed incorporating four developmental scenarios:status-quo development,economy orientation,resource conservation,and green coordination.The system dynamics model was employed to assess and predict water re-source fragility in the region.Results indicate that from 2010 to 2020,the water fragility of the area decreased with increased water conservation efforts,but overall fragility remained moderate.Of the four development sce-narios,simulation results for water resources'healthy development showed,first,an upward trend for water re-sources'future fragility,and,second,that resource conservation scenario will best alleviate imbalance between water supply and demand.Therefore,adjusting economic structure and innovating water-saving technologies can have a positive effect on alleviating water resource fragility.Future development should prioritize not only the economic development of the Kekeya Project Zone,but also increase the intensity of ecological construction to achieve high-quality,sustainable water resource management in the in the region.关键词
水资源脆弱性/系统动力学模型/模糊综合评价/柯柯牙工程区Key words
water vulnerability/system dynamics model/fuzzy comprehensive evaluation/Kekeya area引用本文复制引用
杨雪梅,王让会,刘春伟..未来多情景下柯柯牙工程区水资源脆弱性评价及预测[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(4):640-648,9.基金项目
山水林田湖草沙一体化保护和修复工程相关关键问题和关键技术研究(AKSSSXM2022620)资助 （AKSSSXM2022620）
