极地研究2025，Vol.37Issue(1)：118-136,19.DOI:10.13679/j.jdyj.20230031
北极海洋短期和中长期预报模型研究进展
Numerical model studies of short-term forcasts and medium to long-term predictions for the Arctic Ocean:A review
摘要
Abstract
The Arctic marine system is a crucial component of Earth's climate system,and its hydrological changes and ocean currents can have profound impacts on the natural environment and ecosystems both lo-cally and globally.The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid changes,and numerical models play a crucial role in forecasting and projecting the future state of the Arctic Ocean.However,notable differences exist be-tween various numerical models in terms of resolution,initial field conditions,driving forces,and atmos-pheric forcing,resulting in substantial disparities among such models.With consideration of the differences in the above factors among various numerical models,this paper systematically reviews the progress of re-search in China and internationally based on using numerical models for short-term forecasting and long-term predictions for the Arctic Ocean,focusing on the accuracy of factors such as sea temperature,sa-linity,ocean circulation,and sea level,together with consideration of their projected changes.Building upon existing research,this paper also anticipates unresolved issues in future application of numerical models for predictions and estimations concerning the Arctic Ocean.关键词
北极地区/海洋/预报/预估/模型Key words
Arctic region/ocean/forecast/prediction/model引用本文复制引用
查宇凡,张瑜,陈长胜,徐丹亚..北极海洋短期和中长期预报模型研究进展[J].极地研究,2025,37(1):118-136,19.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42376231,42130402)、国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0607001)、上海市自然科学基金(22ZR1427400)和南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)创新团队建设项目(311021009)资助 （42376231,42130402）
