建筑结构学报2025，Vol.46Issue(4)：1-14,14.DOI:10.14006/j.jzjgxb.2024.0128
风险驱动的地震预警决策阈值确定方法研究
Risk-driven methods for determining earthquake early warning decision thresholds
摘要
Abstract
In the current earthquake early warning(EEW)system,the determination of thresholder for judging whether to trigger warning or not is generally based on the results of the risk assessment of the target area,combined with the experience of experts.Although the results of the risk assessment are taken into consideration,the process of determining the threshold still has great uncertainty.To solve the problems above,an early warning decision matrix was proposed,which could comprehensively consider different risk indicators and determine the threshold.Combined with the fragility models of structural and non-structural components based on the performance-based earthquake engineering,the decision matrix can predict the expectation corresponding to the alarm(not alarm)from different risk indicators and reduce the uncertainty of the determining the decision threshold.At the same time,different weight coefficients were introduced and various risk indicators were assigned to supplement the single economic indicator and construct expectation which can comprehensively consider different indicators.The optimal decision threshold was determined by comparing the risk expectations corresponding to the alarm(not alarm).To verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method,a single-story school building in the Sichuan-Yunnan area was taken as the research object and the early warning decision thresholds for both intensity parameters and engineering demand parameters were calculated separately.The results show that compared with the traditional method,the method proposed in this paper can determine the threshold from the perspective of decision makers'professional preferences and coupling different risk indicators,where the average accuracy is as high as 91％through actual earthquake case.关键词
地震预警/风险管理/地震危险性分析/预警决策/抗震性能Key words
earthquake early warning/risk management/probabilistic seismic hazard analysis/warning decision-making/seismic performance分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张辉,李钢,余丁浩,董志骞..风险驱动的地震预警决策阈值确定方法研究[J].建筑结构学报,2025,46(4):1-14,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52225804,52008075,524B2125),中央高校基本科研业务费项目(DUT22RC(3)038). （52225804,52008075,524B2125）
