气象与环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(1)：43-49,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.01.005
陕西省极端降水时空分布及暴雨洪涝致灾指标研究
Spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation and index of heavy rain flood disaster in Shaanxi province
摘要
Abstract
Using the daily precipitation data from 94 national stations in Shaanxi province from 1971 to 2021,the method of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA)was used to determine the extreme precipitation threshod,and the method such as linear trend estimation,moving average,power spectrum analysis,and generalized extreme val-ue distribution were utilized to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution,and probability characteristics of ex-treme precipitation.The disaster-causing index of heavy rain floods were further established based on the disaster data.The results show that the extreme precipitation thresholds in Shaanxi province generally show a decreasing trend from south to north.The high-value areas are mainly distributed at the southern border of Hanzhong and An-kang.The extreme precipitation frequencies in various parts of Shaanxi province have shown an increasing trend in recent years,being most significant in the northern region.The DFA threshold is slightly higher than that of the 2 a return period.The DFA threshold has a large dispersion due to unique terrain leffect in some areas.There are obvi-ous high-value areas in southern Loess Plateau and northwestern Guanzhong,and the threshold span crossing Qin-ling Mountains is large.Combined with the extreme precipitation thresholds,the disaster causing rainfall in different regions,and the terrain and regional vulnerability,the recommended thresholds for southern,central,and northern Shaanxi province are 80 mm,55 mm,and 50 mm,respectively,which can provide a reference for disaster preven-tion and heavy precipitation warning in various regions.关键词
极端降水/去趋势波动法/重现期/致灾指标Key words
Extreme precipitation/Decentralized fluctuation analysis/Return period/Disaster causing indicator分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
范倩莹,徐娟娟,郑小华,刘环..陕西省极端降水时空分布及暴雨洪涝致灾指标研究[J].气象与环境学报,2025,41(1):43-49,7.基金项目
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目一般项目(青年)(2024JC-YBQN-0326)及秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室开放研究基金课题(2022Y-5、2023Y-1)共同资助. （青年）
