三峡大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.47Issue(3)：50-58,9.DOI:10.13393/j.cnki.issn.1672-948X.2025.03.008
基于易发性评价的泥石流沟危险范围模拟预测研究
Simulation and Prediction of Dangerous Range of Debris Flow Gully Based on Vulnerability Assessment:a Case Study of Derong County
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,debris flow disaster in Derong County,Garze Prefecture,Sichuan Province was selected as the research object,and six prone factors,i.e.,basin area,average slope,gully density,distance from fault,distance from river,and distance from road were selected.The information distribution under each prone factor classification was calculated through information model and raster data analysis function in a GIS platform.Four levels of susceptibility evaluation in Derong County were obtained,and the result reliability was verified by frequency ratio.The Voellmy model was selected to simulate the debris flow movement process in three recurrence periods(1%,2%and 5%)based on Massflow software,and the mud depth,velocity,and accumulation range were calculated.Finally,according to the simulation results and remote sensing images,the prediction results of the danger range of debris flow gully were obtained.The results show that the areas prone to extremely high debris flow in Derong County are concentrated in the areas of Yanggu Town and Ciwu County.Mudslide in Jichong Village under three rainfall conditions will pose a threat to the area of 110-570 m around Jichong Village primary school.It provides a certain scientific basis and reference significance for local disaster prevention and reduction,and risk management and control.关键词
得荣县/易发性分析/泥石流/数值模拟/危险预测Key words
Derong county/susceptibility analysis/debris flow/numerical simulation/risk prediction分类
地质学引用本文复制引用
宋俊钢,杨顺,焦加璇,黄韵琪..基于易发性评价的泥石流沟危险范围模拟预测研究[J].三峡大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,47(3):50-58,9.基金项目
西华大学人才引进项目(Z211016) （Z211016）
日本研究中心项目(RBYJ2022-003) （RBYJ2022-003）
成都市科技厅揭榜挂帅应急类项目(2024-JB00-00006-SN) （2024-JB00-00006-SN）
