微型电脑应用2025，Vol.41Issue(2)：70-73,4.
基于不确定性分析的电力工程项目评估建模与仿真
Modeling and Simulation of Power Engineering Project Evaluation Based on Uncertainty Analysis
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the availability of the predicted value of the power engineering data,the modeling and simulation for project evaluation are carried out after considering various uncertainties in the engineering design stage.The proposed meth-od classifies the uncertain factors before the implementation of power engineering into accidental uncertainty and cognitive un-certainty,and then models are established separately based on the characteristics of uncertainties.By introducing a deep learn-ing network which is based on Bayesian theory,and using the method of secondary sampling to solve high-dimensional integral,the calculation efficiency of the model is improved.In building the final prediction model,by considering the long-term charac-teristics of power engineering construction,the long short-term memory(LSTM)unit is used to build the sequence propagation network.The simulation results show that the relevant parameters of the model are normally distributed in the iterative process,and the proposed model can convert the point value output of the traditional deep learning network into the predictive probability output.When evaluating the effectiveness of the model,a 95％confidence interval of the prediction results is built based on the mean value and variance of the predicted values.The prediction accuracy of the model is 93.56％,and all predic-tion results fall within the 95％confidence interval.关键词
不确定性/深度学习/贝叶斯理论/造价预测Key words
uncertainty/deep learning/Bayesian theory/cost prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
曹伟杰,戴健,顾博渊,陈超超..基于不确定性分析的电力工程项目评估建模与仿真[J].微型电脑应用,2025,41(2):70-73,4.基金项目
2022年江苏无锡公司配网项目精准投资评价体系研究(B71030225F53) （B71030225F53）
