新疆环境保护2025，Vol.47Issue(1)：66-72,7.
基于回归和M-K方法宣城市冬季气温时间序列分析
Analysis of Winter Temperature Time Series in Xuancheng City Based on Regression and M-K Method
季菊香 1周宗圣 1杨小兵 2康家明 1邱丽芳1
作者信息
- 1. 宣城市气象局,安徽 宣城 242000
- 2. 泾县气象局,安徽 泾县 242500
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To understand change laws of winter temperature in Xuancheng area,regression analysis and M-K non-parametric mutation test methods were used to study time series data of winter temperature from 1962 to 2022.By using the periodic elimination method and Python software,a differential sequence was generated,and the stationarity test of the sequence was completed.The M-K method was used to analyze the temperature change trend and mutation points in the time series.The results showed that:The temperature tendency rate was 2.23 ℃/6a at a 99％confidence level,which revealed a significant upward trend in winter temperature as a whole;The temperature change also showed a significant inter decadal trend of"rise to fall",that was,in some years,the temperature rised rapidly,while in other years,it was relatively flat or showed a decline;During 2010 to 2020,the interannual variability of winter temperatures significantly decreased,which indicating that the interannual fluctuations of winter temperatures are gradually stabilizing.This study had great significance for predicting future climate change trends and formulating relevant response strategies.关键词
回归分析/M-K方法/冬季气温/时间序列Key words
regression analysis/M-K method/winter temperature/time series分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
季菊香,周宗圣,杨小兵,康家明,邱丽芳..基于回归和M-K方法宣城市冬季气温时间序列分析[J].新疆环境保护,2025,47(1):66-72,7.
