中国水利Issue(7)：14-29,16.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2025.07.003
流域防洪"四预"关键技术研究与应用
Research and application of key technologies of the"forecast,early-warning,rehearsal and plan"for basin flood control
摘要
Abstract
The"forecast,early-warning,rehearsal and contingency planning"for basin flood control,serving as the starting and ending points for the construction of digital twin basin,represents a crucial means to enhance the capability of basin flood control and ensure the safety of people's lives and property.Under the framework of the smart water system and digital twin basin,this study designed a general process framework of the"forecast,early-warning,rehearsal and plan"for basin flood control.A dynamic mutual feedback mechanism was established,which includes rolling adjustments of forecasts driven by the implementation of the plan,dynamic updates of the early-warning,and dynamic mutual feed mechanism for the adjustment of rehearsal intervention objects.A technical framework for basin flood forecast driven by the"three lines of defense"was constructed to support rolling forecasts and forward/backward rehearsals.This study explored an"1+4"multi-agent architecture,which consists of a core intelligent agent and auxiliary intelligent agents for plan matching,plan evaluation,self-learning and self-optimization.A new intelligent decision-making mode featuring self-learning and self-optimization for basin flood control was proposed.The results can provide support for the process standardization of the"forecast,early-warning,rehearsal and contingency planning"for basin flood control,the construction and application of the"three lines of defense",and the research and development of water conservancy large models.关键词
流域防洪/"四预"/"三道防线"/预报调度一体化/多智能体决策Key words
basin flood control/the"forecast,early-warning,rehearsal and contingency planning"process/the"three lines of defense"/integration of forecasting and operating/multi-agent for decision-making分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
何健,肖尧轩,刘国庆,王在艾,赵牧晨..流域防洪"四预"关键技术研究与应用[J].中国水利,2025,(7):14-29,16.基金项目
广西壮族自治区科技计划项目"平陆运河全生命周期数字孪生平台技术研究及示范应用"(桂科AA23062053) （桂科AA23062053）
江苏省水利科技项目"城市极端暴雨综合风险动态评估关键技术与应用"(2023008) （2023008）
水利部重大科技项目"基于数字孪生的百色水利枢纽工程安全运行关键技术研究项目"(SKS-2022158). （SKS-2022158）
