中国水利Issue(7)：37-47,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2025.07.005
水库防洪风险分析与"四预"耦联模型研究
Evaluation of risks for reservoir flood control and studies on coupling model for"forecasting,warning,rehearsal and contingency planning"——taking Diaoyutai Reservoir in Chengde City of Hebei Province as an example
摘要
Abstract
Chengde City of Hebei Province extends across two major geomorphic units of the Bashang Plateau and the Yanshan Mountains,and is vulnerable to flood disasters caused by flash flood and mudslide.Studies on flood control and disaster reduction models with multi-engineering system of reservoir-river course-dyke are vital to create a smart technical system for the reservoir.Taking the Diaoyutai Reservoir as a research object,a coupled model for upstream forecasting,reservoir scheduling,and downstream river course and floodplain flood routing and inundation was developed to simulate rainfall runoff and risks of inundation under flood regulation.Combining current research frontiers and hot topics for"forecasting,warning,rehearsal and contingency planning"that integrate"three defense lines"for rainfall monitoring and forecasting,a coupled model framework was proposed with a focus on reservoir and multi-dimensional needs of upstream,downstream,and left and right banks.Application and adoption of this measure shall effectively improve accuracy of flood forecast,timeliness of warning,intuitiveness of rehearsal and the function of emergency plan,and provide technical support for enhancing capabilities of reservoirs in the Chengde City to defense floods and reduce disasters.关键词
"四预"/预报-调度-风险分析/水库-河道-堤防多工程系统/耦合模型/三道防线Key words
"forecasting,warning,rehearsal and contingency planning"/forecast-scheduling-risk analysis/a multi-engineering system of reservoir-river course-dyke/coupling model/three defense lines分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
刘明辉,杨长青,李昕,马超,张安邦..水库防洪风险分析与"四预"耦联模型研究[J].中国水利,2025,(7):37-47,11.基金项目
河北省承德市应用技术研究与开发暨可持续发展议程创新示范区专项科技计划项目(202305B009). （202305B009）
