交通节能与环保2025，Vol.21Issue(2)：65-71,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-6478.2025.02.013
基于LSTM的人口经济变化下交通运输碳排放预测
Carbon Emission Prediction of Transportation Industry under Demographic and Economic Changes Based on LSTM Modeling
摘要
Abstract
In order to study the carbon emissions from the transportation industry under the demographic and economic changes,the current situation of regional carbon emissions as well as demographic and economic and energy consumption is explored in depth,and the total amount of carbon emissions and the trend of changes during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods are analyzed in the region.A multiple linear regression model is established by introducing Person correlation to determine the values of the parameters of the carbon emission prediction model.A linear model is established to find out the influence factors of population and economy on energy consumption,and the model is used to forecast future energy consumption.The LSTM prediction model is established and evaluated based on the indicator data from 2010 to 2020,and the LSTM model is used to predict the carbon emissions from 2021 to 2060.The results of the study show a general upward trend in transportation carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020,with future energy consumption continuing to rise and the growth rate becoming slower,and a stepwise upward trend in future carbon emissions without any artificial control.关键词
交通运输/LSTM/碳排放预测/多元线性回归Key words
transportation/LSTM/carbon emission forecast/multivariate linear regression分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
马飞虎,张玉玲,谢天长,王海玲,董倩..基于LSTM的人口经济变化下交通运输碳排放预测[J].交通节能与环保,2025,21(2):65-71,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFE0105600) （2021YFE0105600）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51978263) （51978263）
江西省自然科学基金重点项目(20192ACBL20008) （20192ACBL20008）
