长江科学院院报2025，Vol.42Issue(4)：45-51,60,8.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20231412
土地利用和气候变化对热带岛屿汛期径流的影响
Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Flood Season Runoff in Tropical Islands
摘要
Abstract
To analyze the impacts of land use and climate change on flood season runoff in tropical island regions,we selected the middle and lower reaches of the Nandu River basin in Hainan,a tropical river area,as the study area.We employed the SWAT model to simulate flood season runoff changes under different scenarios.Results indi-cate that,under the land use change scenario,converting cropland or planted forest land to natural forest land in the watershed reduces both the average monthly runoff and its variance during the flood season.Conversely,conver-ting planted forest land to cropland increases these two parameters.The runoff generation capacity of cropland is lar-ger than that of planted forest land and natural forest land in descending order.Under the climate change scenario,the average monthly runoff and its variance during flood season in the basin are directly proportional to rainfall and inversely proportional to temperature.Particularly,the flood season average monthly runoff changes at Longtang Sta-tion are more susceptible to climate change.In the integrated scenario,compared with the base period,the incre-ment of average monthly runoff and its variance due to climate change significantly outweighs the decrease caused by land use change.Longtang Station shows higher sensitivity to climate change.关键词
土地利用变化/气候变化/SWAT模型/热带岛屿/汛期径流Key words
land use change/climate change/SWAT model/tropical islands/flood season runoff分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
熊伟,叶长青,薛世玉,朱丽蓉,李俊..土地利用和气候变化对热带岛屿汛期径流的影响[J].长江科学院院报,2025,42(4):45-51,60,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52069006) （52069006）
海南省自然科学基金项目(ZDYF2022SHFZ060,421QN201) （ZDYF2022SHFZ060,421QN201）
