当代经济科学2025，Vol.47Issue(2)：113-132,20.DOI:10.20069/j.cnki.DJKX.202502008
超大规模市场下省际总量贸易和增加值贸易网络特征及演化机制
The Characteristics and Evolution Mechanism of Inter-provincial Total Trade and Value-added Trade Network in the Super-large Market
摘要
Abstract
Summary Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks and the restructuring of global value chains,leveraging China's super-large market advantages and strengthening inter-provincial trade can help integrate domestic resources,optimize industrial chain layout,form a unified national market,and provide solid support for building a new development pattern. Based on the China Multi-Regional Input-Output Table(MRIOT)and the World Input-Output Database(WIOD),this paper decomposes the domestic value chain using Koopman et al.'s value-added decomposition model to analyze scale changes and spatiotemporal distribution of total trade and value-added trade at the provincial level.The paper employs social network analysis to examine structural characteristics and community evolution of both trade networks,and constructs a temporal exponential random graph model(TERGM)to explore their formation and evolution mechanisms.The research findings reveal:(1)Throughout the observation period,total trade and its components have continuously increased.Intra-provincial trade maintains the highest proportion despite a downward trend,while inter-provincial trade shows a relatively high and continuously rising proportion.Value-added trade primarily occurs within domestic circulation,though production and circulation chains remain relatively short.Central and western regions demonstrate deeper involvement in domestic circulation compared to eastern coastal regions.(2)Network structures of intermediate inputs and household consumption remain relatively stable with high clustering coefficients,while government consumption and capital formation networks display unbalanced characteristics.The total trade network exhibits stronger centralization with a southward trend,whereas the value-added trade network shows contraction and non-agglomeration development patterns.(3)TERGM estimation results reveal significant endogenous structural effects in both inter-provincial total trade and value-added trade networks,indicating that the network's structure and relationship patterns play crucial roles in its evolution rather than merely responding to external factors.Economic development level,population size,and industrial structure upgrading significantly promote inter-provincial trade,while improvements in intra-provincial transportation convenience have created a substitution effect of intra-provincial trade for inter-provincial trade. Building on existing research,this paper analyzes the domestic economic cycle from a network perspective with three main contributions.First,it places global value chains(GVC)and national value chains(NVC)within a unified analytical framework,integrating analysis of commodity trade characteristics and inter-regional value division among domestic regions with the super-large market context,revealing the process and characteristics of domestic market integration.Second,it simultaneously examines structural features of total trade and value-added trade networks and their interactions,analyzing dynamic trade connections among domestic regions from both product and value flow perspectives,providing a more comprehensive picture of inter-provincial trade proportional structure and development trends.Third,it employs complex network analysis to reveal internal structure and evolution patterns of trade networks.By using TERGM to analyze evolution mechanisms of total and value-added trade networks within China's super-large market,it overcomes limitations of existing trade network studies that primarily consider exogenous factors and static characteristics,providing a new theoretical framework for explaining the dynamic process of domestic market integration. The research conclusions facilitate leveraging China's super-large market advantages,better tapping domestic market potential,deepening regional division of labor and cooperation,and forming a differentiated and coordinated industrial pattern.It also provides valuable proposals for accelerating China's development as a trading power and enhancing its industrial competitiveness.关键词
超大规模市场/国内价值链/省际总量贸易/增加值贸易/网络社团分析Key words
super-large market/national value chain(NVC)/inter-provincial gross trade/value-added trade/network community analysis引用本文复制引用
贺胜兵,张倩,刘友金..超大规模市场下省际总量贸易和增加值贸易网络特征及演化机制[J].当代经济科学,2025,47(2):113-132,20.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"跨区域产业链合作推动中部地区崛起研究"(24AJY017) （24AJY017）
国家社会科学基金重大项目"新发展格局下'一带一路'产业链供应链合作共生与韧性提升研究"(24&ZD284). （24&ZD284）
