干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(4)：622-636,15.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.05
喀喇昆仑山克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水警戒面积研究
Research on the alert area of Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods in the Karakoram Mountains
摘要
Abstract
The periodic outburst floods from the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake pose a severe threat to down-stream areas.In the context of global warming,research on monitoring and early warning for the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake is particularly important.Therefore,this study aimed to determine the alert area for the Kyagar Gla-cier-dammed Lake outburst floods.The area changes and sudden drainage events of the lake were first analyzed using multi-source optical remote sensing data from 1990-2023.Then,the critical minimum drainage volume of the lake was calculated using an area-volume empirical formula and historical flood data.At the same time,the ra-tionality of the alert area was verified through the relationship between the drainage volume and the net flood peak discharge established in this study.The results showed that the lake experienced 20 sudden drainage events over the past 34 years,17 of which led to glacial lake outburst floods.The periods 1996-2009 and 2015-2019 were unstable,with repeated lake filling and draining.The alert area for the outburst floods of the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake is 1.046 km2,and the alert net flood peak discharge resulting from the sudden drainage is 418 m3·s-1.Although the lake area shows a decreasing trend,the risk of flood disasters triggered by the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods does not necessarily decrease.The lake outburst flood,when superimposed on high basic runoff,can still threaten downstream areas.When the lake area approaches its alert area,it is necessary to monitor its changes closely and implement early warning measures in combination with the basic runoff at the hy-drological station.The proposed alert lake area and its determination method may provide scientific support for early warning monitoring of the outburst flood of the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake and offer guidance for early warning of flood disasters in the Yarkand River Basin.关键词
冰湖突发洪水/预警/面积变化/克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖/喀喇昆仑山Key words
glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF)/early warning/area change/Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake/Karakoram Mountains引用本文复制引用
罗希,阿里木江·卡斯木,刘英,包安明,袁野,于涛..喀喇昆仑山克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水警戒面积研究[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(4):622-636,15.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发专项资助(2022B03021-1) （2022B03021-1）
新疆维吾尔自治区"天山英才培养"计划资助(2022TSYCLJ0011) （2022TSYCLJ0011）
