干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(4)：668-681,14.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.09
基于GeoDetector-MCCA的土地利用变化驱动因素分析与多情景模拟
Driving factors analysis and multi-scenario simulation of land use change based on GeoDetector-Mixed-cell Cellular Automata:A case of the Gansu section in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Land resources are the most fundamental production factors for human survival and development.In-vestigating the driving factors of land use change and simulating future land use scenarios are of great signifi-cance for regional sustainable development.Taking the Gansu section in the Yellow River Basin as the research area,this paper,based on multi-source data,employs methods such as the land use transfer matrix,GeoDetector,and the Mixed-cell Cellular Automata(MCCA)model to reveal the evolution characteristics of land use and con-duct multi-scenario simulations for 2035.The results are as follows:(1)From 2000-2020,the land use/cover in the research area mainly comprised cultivated land,forest land,and grassland.The extent of forest and grassland cover was relatively high,and the area of cultivated land decreased significantly.Moreover,the conversion be-tween cultivated land and grassland was the most obvious.(2)The dominant factors influencing land use change of the Gansu section in the Yellow River Basin include elevation,temperature,precipitation,distance from rural settlements,and population density.The q-values of the interaction effects of all driving factors have increased.(3)The MCCA model exhibits high simulation accuracy,with an overall accuracy of 0.903.In 2035,the simula-tion results vary among scenarios.Under the natural evolution scenario,cultivated land and unused land contract,while other land types expand.Under the cultivated land protection scenario,the current stock of cultivated land is maintained,but the area of grassland decreases significantly.In the ecological priority scenario,the areas of for-est land and grassland increase significantly.The economic development scenario is manifested in a more aggres-sive development paradigm,under which construction land experiences a remarkable expansion.The research re-sults provide references for land management and high-quality development of the Gansu section in the Yellow River Basin.关键词
土地利用/多情景模拟/地理探测器/MCCA模型/黄河流域甘肃段Key words
land use/multi-scenario simulation/GeoDetector/Mixed-cell Cellular Automata model/the Gan-su section in the Yellow River Basin引用本文复制引用
张艳,杨维新,吕韬..基于GeoDetector-MCCA的土地利用变化驱动因素分析与多情景模拟[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(4):668-681,14.基金项目
陕西省重大科技项目(2022ZDLSF07-05) （2022ZDLSF07-05）
国家自然科学基金项目(42371210)资助 （42371210）
