干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(4)：682-694,13.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.10
水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调度关系研究及预测
Research and prediction of the degree of coupling coordination of water resources,socioeconomic development,and the ecological environment:A case of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
With rapid socioeconomic development,competition between human activities and the natural environ-ment has intensified significantly,making the balance between socioeconomic development and environmental protection critical.This study constructs a coupling coordination model for a water resources-socioeconomic-eco-logical environment system to assess the coordination status of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin from 1998 to 2022.Additionally,an improved LSTM model is employed to predict the development trends over the next five years under four integrated regulation scenarios.The results indicate that:(1)The evaluation in-dices of the water resources,socioeconomic,and ecological environment subsystems across cities in the Yellow River Basin are 0.47-0.57,0.47-0.87,and 0.42-0.58,respectively,reflecting moderate overall coordination level in the water resources and ecological environment subsystems,whereas the socioeconomic subsystem exhibits rel-atively higher values but still has room for improvement.(2)The coupling coordination degree of the system in each city shows a gradual upward trend(0.67-0.80),with an overall increase of 19%.(3)Future scenario predic-tions reveal that joint regulation of water resources and socioeconomic factors leads to the most significant im-provements in Alxa,Bayannur,and Ulanqab,whereas joint regulation of socioeconomic and ecological environ-ment factors yields the greatest improvements in Wuhai.Meanwhile,joint regulation of water resources and the ecological environment proves most effective in Baotou,Hohhot,and Ordos.关键词
耦合协调度/时空分布特征/改进LSTM/黄河流域内蒙古段Key words
coupling coordination degree/spatial and temporal distribution characteristics/improved LSTM/the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin引用本文复制引用
孟庆帅,巩钰,刘小燕,童新,王东民,谢国英,刘廷玺..水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调度关系研究及预测[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(4):682-694,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2243234) （U2243234）
内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室(SQ2024SKL08048) （SQ2024SKL08048）
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3206503) （2023YFC3206503）
内蒙古自治区科技项目(2020ZD0009) （2020ZD0009）
教育部创新团队发展计划(IRT_17R60) （IRT_17R60）
内蒙古自治区科技领军人才团队(2022LJRC0007) （2022LJRC0007）
内蒙古农业大学基本科研业务费专项资金(BR22-12-04,BR22-10-12) （BR22-12-04,BR22-10-12）
