高校地质学报2025，Vol.31Issue(2)：123-130,8.DOI:10.16108/j.issn1006-7493.2024012
基于混合似然函数的融雪径流模拟不确定性分析
Uncertainty Analysis Based on Mixed Likelihood Function in Snowmelt RunoffModel
摘要
Abstract
Due to the influence of model parameters and observational data,hydrological models usually have significant uncertainties.Quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of snowmelt runoff simulation can control the uncertainty of the simulation results and improve the predictive performance of the model,which is of great significance for the scientific management of water resources in cold and arid mountainous regions.In this study,the parameter uncertainty analysis of snowmelt runoff model based on Markov chain Monte Carlo method(MCMC)is carried out in the Cele River basin in southern Xinjiang as the study area.Aiming at the difficulties such as zero flatted error of the likelihood function and the residual structure in MCMC,a mixed likelihood function with a combination of binomial and normal distributions is used to describe the residual structure,and the results are compared and analyzed with those of the traditional Gaussian likelihood function.Model evaluation indicators such as the Root Mean Square Error,coefficient of determination and prediction interval coverage show that the uncertainty analysis results based on the mixed likelihood function have better prediction performance.Therefore,the mixed likelihood function can more reasonably portray the structure of the simulated residuals of snowmelt runoff,significantly improve the prediction performance of hydrological models,and is conducive to the implementation of scientific and accurate water resource management and protection.关键词
水文模拟不确定性/混合似然函数/融雪径流模型/MCMC/零膨胀误差Key words
uncertainty in hydrological modeling/mixed likelihood function/snowmelt runoff model/MCMC/zero flatted error分类
地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴吉天,曾献奎,吴吉春..基于混合似然函数的融雪径流模拟不确定性分析[J].高校地质学报,2025,31(2):123-130,8.基金项目
江苏省省级地质勘查项目(苏财资环[2021]46号) （苏财资环[2021]46号）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42477082)联合资助 （42477082）
