甘蔗糖业2025，Vol.54Issue(2)：1-10,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9695.2025.02.001
广西甘蔗分生育期干旱特征与致灾危险性评估
Characteristic Analysis and Hazard Assessment of Sugarcane Drought during Different Growth Stages in Guangxi
摘要
Abstract
The hazard of drought-induced disasters is identified as a critical factor contributing to sugarcane drought risk,the characterization of drought features and hazard assessment across sugarcane growth stages are emphasized as essential for drought risk prevention.Daily meteorological data from 1991 to 2020,collected by national weather stations in Guangxi,were utilized in this study.A drought-induced hazard index for sugarcane growth stages was constructed based on the sugarcane water deficit anomaly index and a hazard factor assessment framework.Through this index,the frequency,intensity characteristics,and hazard risks of droughts during different growth stages were systematically analyzed and evaluated.The results showed that drought events were observed in all growth stages,with significant spatial and temporal variations.The lowest frequencies were recorded in the sowing-seedling stage and tillering stage,followed by the stem elongation stage,while the highest frequency occurred in the industrial maturity stage.Sowing-seedling and tillering stages:Highest drought frequency in southern Guangxi,moderate in central and northern regions.Stem elongation stage:Similar frequencies across northern,central,and southern Guangxi.Industrial maturity stage:Highest frequency in southern and central Guangxi,lowest in the north.Drought intensity was found to increase progressively with growth stages,the lowest intensity was identified in the sowing-seedling and tillering stages,moderate in the stem elongation stage,and the highest in the industrial maturity stage,predominantly classified as severe to extreme drought.Hazard risks were detected in all growth stages,ranked in descending order as:industrial maturity stage＞stem elongation stage＞sowing-seedling stage＞tillering stage.Industrial maturity stage:Southern and northern Guangxi,Stem elongation stage:Northeastern and partial central Guangxi,Sowing-seedling stage:Most areas of Baise City,Tillering stage:Low-risk across most regions.These findings are expected to provide scientific references for enhancing drought risk prediction and early warning capabilities in sugarcane cultivation.关键词
甘蔗/干旱/致灾危险性/水分亏缺指数/分生育期Key words
Sugarcane/Drought/Hazard assessment/Moisture deficit index/Growth stages分类
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刘志平,匡昭敏,郭媛,马瑞升,丁美花,吴炫柯..广西甘蔗分生育期干旱特征与致灾危险性评估[J].甘蔗糖业,2025,54(2):1-10,10.基金项目
广西气象科研计划项目(桂气科 2024M07) （桂气科 2024M07）
中国气象局科技项目(CMAJBGS202322) （CMAJBGS202322）
广西科技重大专项(桂科AA22117007) （桂科AA22117007）
广西科技重大专项(桂科AB22035069) （桂科AB22035069）
