甘蔗糖业2025，Vol.54Issue(2)：22-31,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9695.2025.02.003
广西甘蔗生产的气候风险评估
Climate Risk Assessment of Sugarcane Production in Guangxi
摘要
Abstract
This study aims to scientifically and systematically evaluate the current climate risks and future trends throughout the entire growth period of sugarcane in Guangxi.Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change,it addresses the potential impacts on sugarcane yield and quality.Utilizing long-term meteorological data(1961～2022),historical meteorological disaster records,and sugarcane cultivation data,this research constructs a climate risk assessment index system and model through correlation analysis,principal component analysis,and the analytic hierarchy process.The results indicate that sugarcane climate risk in Guangxi decreases from east to west.The eastern and northern regions exhibit higher risk levels due to frequent droughts,while the western,central,and southern coastal areas benefit from favorable precipitation and temperature conditions,resulting in lower risks.Projections suggest that by 2030,the risk in northeastern Guangxi will increase significantly,whereas the lowest-risk zones in the west will expand.Future climatic conditions are expected to exacerbate regional disparities in sugarcane production.The study concludes that high-risk areas require enhanced meteorological monitoring and early warning systems,optimized planting strategies,promotion of drought-and cold-resistant cultivars,and improved agricultural infrastructure.These measures are crucial to mitigate adverse meteorological impacts and ensure the sustainable development of Guangxi's sugarcane industry.关键词
甘蔗/气候风险/风险评估/气候变化Key words
Sugarcane/Climate risk/Risk assessment/Climate change分类
农业科学引用本文复制引用
李莉,匡昭敏,欧钊荣,马瑞升,陈冬宇..广西甘蔗生产的气候风险评估[J].甘蔗糖业,2025,54(2):22-31,10.基金项目
中国气象局科技项目"揭榜挂帅""基于天空地一体化融合数据的精细化甘蔗农情灾情评估预警和产量预报技术与数算一体化平台研发"(CMAJBGS202322) （CMAJBGS202322）
广西科技重大专项"高效低损甘蔗机械化收获关键技术集成应用与示范"(桂科AA22117007) （桂科AA22117007）
