经济学报2025，Vol.12Issue(1)：19-37,19.
调查失业率与奥肯定律再检验
Surveyed Unemployment Rate and Okun's Law in China:And Its Implication for Youth(Un)employment
摘要
Abstract
Previous studies find that Okun's Law is invalid in China due to low quality of the unemployment indicators.This study re-examines the validity of Okun's Law in China using Surveyed Unemployment Rate(SUR)newly released by the National Bureau of Statistics.The findings indicate that Okun's Law holds for SUR in China and the results are robust.We also estimate the time-varying natural unemployment rate in China using the state space model and Kalman filter,which reveals that the high unemployment rate for youth after 2020 results from increasing natural unemployment rate.This study contributes to a better understanding of the structural features of China's labor market,and helps improve the effectiveness of the policy of"employment stability".关键词
调查失业率/奥肯定律/动态自然失业率/青年失业分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
陈恺,申广军,谭韦珊..调查失业率与奥肯定律再检验[J].经济学报,2025,12(1):19-37,19.基金项目
本研究受国家社科基金重点项目"要素市场化配置的效应评估与政策优化研究"(项目编号:24AZD063)的资助. （项目编号:24AZD063）
