江西科学2025，Vol.43Issue(2)：271-280,10.DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2025.02.008
基于PLUS-InVEST模型的碳储量演变与多情景模拟预测
Evolution of Carbon Storage and Multi-Scenario Simulation Prediction Based on PLUS-InVEST Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the guidance of the"double carbon"goal,studying the relationship between carbon storage and land use mode change is important for coping with the global climate change crisis and protecting the balance of terrestrial ecosystems.Tianshui city spans the two major basins of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River.It is a key area for ecological security barriers in the western part of the country and bears the major responsibility of the ecological security barrier support area in Southeast China.Using the multi-period land use data of Tianshui city between 2000 and 2020,the PLUS model and the InVEST model are coupled to explore the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in Tianshui city under multiple scenarios.The results show that:1)The carbon storage of Tianshui city has decreased by 13.33×104 t over the past 20 years,with cultivated land contributing a reduction of 100.96×104 t,while grassland,forestland and other land types increased carbon storage by 50.82×104,36.15×104 and 0.67×104 t respectively.2)The land types with the highest carbon storage in Tianshui city are woodland,grassland and cultivated land.An increase of 1 km2 in forestland,grassland and cultivated land can bring 0.52×104,0.37×104 and 0.31×104 t of carbon storage,respectively.3)Multi-scenario forecast results indicate that the greatest reductions in carbon storage occur under the economic development scenario,natural development scenario,and ecological protection scenario,with deceases of 25.83×104,15.8×104 and 11.23×104 t,respectively,compared to 2020.关键词
土地利用变化/碳储量/PLUS模型/InVEST模型/天水市Key words
land use change/carbon storage/PLUS model/InVEST model/Tianshui city分类
地理科学引用本文复制引用
魏学海,蒲生亮..基于PLUS-InVEST模型的碳储量演变与多情景模拟预测[J].江西科学,2025,43(2):271-280,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42461054) （42461054）
自然资源部环鄱阳湖区域矿山环境监测与治理重点实验室开放基金项目(MEMI-2021-2022-26) （MEMI-2021-2022-26）
东华理工大学科研基金项目(DHBK2019192). （DHBK2019192）
