江西科学2025，Vol.43Issue(2)：349-355,7.DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2025.02.019
2024年5月3-5日九江暴雨过程成因及预报误差分析
Analysis of the Causes and Forecast Errors of the Rainstorm Event in Jiujiang from May 3-5,2024
摘要
Abstract
Using conventional observation,Micaps live mapping analysis,WRF model simula-tion analysis,comparison of multiple numerical models,and ERA5(the fifth generation of European Center reanalysis data)data analysis,this paper studied the real characteristics,causes,and forecast bias of the rainstorm process in Jiujiang city from May 3-5,2024.The findings aim to provide a reference for correcting and verifying forecasts of rainstorm in northern Jiangxi.Results indicate that the event was characterized by overlapping frontal precipitation and local convective precipitation,exhibiting abruptness and high disaster potential.The distribution of heavy and torrential rainfall areas was distinct,driven by favorable configuration of the rainstorm system(southern branch,vortex shear,front),combined with continuous dynamic uplift,uninterrupted southwest jet water vapor trans-port,the influence of the bottom cold front transit,and unstable stratification.A compari-son of global multi-model outputs revealed consistent forecasts for the 850 hPa warm shear line location prior to precipitation.However,the models predicted weaker southwest wind speeds,and the overall rain belt area was predicted to deviate from the actual forecast,lead-ing to an underestimate of the cumulative precipitation forecast.关键词
暴雨/锋面降水/预报偏差Key words
rainstorm/frontal precipitation/forecast deviation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡皓,杨超,梅婷..2024年5月3-5日九江暴雨过程成因及预报误差分析[J].江西科学,2025,43(2):349-355,7.基金项目
江西省防灾减灾工程技术研究中心专项项目(JX2023M06). （JX2023M06）
