林业经济问题2025，Vol.45Issue(2)：182-193,12.DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.20240485
全球木质林产品贸易格局演变及动力机制研究
The Evolution and Dynamic Mechanism of the Global Trade Pattern of Wood Forest Products
摘要
Abstract
⑴ Background——The global trade in wood forest products is growing rapidly.Meanwhile,the risks and challenges such as trade protectionism and anti-globalization still exist,and the global trade pattern of wood forest products may accelerate its evolution under this influence.This paper constructs the temporary exponential ran-dom graph model(TERGM)to explore the evolution and dynamic mechanism of the global trade pattern of wood forest products,which is helpful to understand the characteristics and influencing factors of the evolution of the global trade pattern of wood forest products,and provide ideas and directions for further developing the produc-tion and trade of wood forest products in China. ⑵ Methods——Based on the trade data of wood forest products of 114 countries(regions)from 2003 to 2021,the dynamic change of trade network was deduced by using social network method.The trade relationship of wood forest products at each node from 2003 to 2018 was taken as the explained variable,and the structural effect,property effect,exogenous effect and time effect were taken as the explanatory variables to construct the TERGM model,and explore the dynamic mechanism of the formation of wood forest products trade network.In addition,the time effect was sequentially included in the model to verify its impact on the explanatory power of the model. ⑶ Results——The global trade in wood forest products shows the characteristics of local agglomeration and"small world".Among them,the radiation and agglomeration ability of China's wood forest products trade has been enhanced,and it has grown into an important country in this field,but its connectivity potential has shown a weakening trend.Overall,the global trade competition in wood forest products is becoming more and more in-tense,the resulting network has a reshaping trend.The economic freedom,natural capital and economic develop-ment level have significant positive effects on the formation of the trade network.Bilateral distance has a signifi-cant negative effect on the formation of the trade network,while the factors such as neighboring countries,similar language,historical colonial association and historical trade links are conducive to the formation of the trade rela-tions of wood forest products. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The study on the evolution and dynamic mechanism of the global trade pattern of wood forest products has important implications for the development of China's wood forest prod-ucts trade:First,China should continue to expand the opening to the outside world,promote free trade,deepen regional cooperation,explore new trade relations,improve the substitutability of import and export nodes of wood forest products trade,actively participate in the formulation of international trade rules,and promote the mutual recognition of forest certification systems.Second,China should continue to deepen market reform,ease market access,lower trade barriers,expand investment access,evaluate the resource endowments of each node,and re-duce transportation costs by signing bilateral agreements,optimizing routes and other measures.At the same time,expand cultural exchanges with other countries.Third,China should try to maintain access to other key nodes of the network and avoid short-term speculation when formulating the trade policies for wood forest products imports and exports.关键词
木质林产品贸易/社会网络方法/动态指数随机图模型Key words
wood forest products trade/social network method/temporary exponential random graph model分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
江帆,刘勇,李兰英,陈紫伊..全球木质林产品贸易格局演变及动力机制研究[J].林业经济问题,2025,45(2):182-193,12.基金项目
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目(2022JZDZ009)、国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003179)、浙江省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心课题(22WH70066-8Z) （2022JZDZ009）
