大气科学学报2025，Vol.48Issue(2)：177-206,30.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20250112001
中国极端天气气候研究——"地球系统与全球变化"重点专项项目2024年度最新进展
Research on weather and climate extremes over China:2024 progress of the National Key R&D Program of China for Earth System and Global Change
摘要
Abstract
The article reviews the progress made in 2024 under China's National Key R&D Program for Earth System and Global Change.It highlights key research findings across five areas:observational facts and circula-tion characteristics of extreme event changes,key oceanic processes and air-sea interaction mechanisms,the in-fluence of oceanic processes on extreme weather and climate,land surface processes and their impacts,and the simulation and prediction of extreme events.Significant advances in 2024 include the following:1)Our study ex-amined the impact of long-term warming trends on record-breaking high-temperature in China events over the past 40 years.Using the Universal Thermal Climate Index(UTCI),we characterized the spatial distribution and long-term trends of extreme high-temperature events.Observational evidence was provided for changes in hourly and daily extreme precipitation across eastern China during different warming periods.Additionally,regional differences in the duration of summer heatwaves and their associated large-scale circulation anomalies were identi-fied.The dynamic and thermal characteristics of extreme heatwaves in the middle and lower reaches of the Yan-gtze River were analyzed,and attribution studies assessed the influence of human activities on extreme tempera-ture events in Asian hotspots.2)We quantified the role of the winter North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)in shaping subsequent ENSO events,emphasizing the contribution of tropical Pacific interannual-decadal variability to pro-longed La Niña events.Our research also proposed a modulation mechanism whereby La Niña's zonal position in-fluences the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)and identified seasonal reversals in ENSO's impact on sea surface tem-perature(SST)in the East China Sea-Kuroshio Region.Furthermore,we investigated the seasonal predictability of SST anomalies and marine heatwaves in the Kuroshio Extension Region,highlighting the role of nonlinear processes in the amplitude evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)and extreme MJO formation.Addi-tionally,pathways linking anthropogenic forcing,natural variability,and internal climate fluctuations to multid-ecadal changes in the North Atlantic were explored.3)Our findings revealed asymmetric ENSO influences on the late-winter"Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia"pattern and identified links between ENSO and precipitation patterns in eastern China during early and late winter.The connection between ENSO and the Kuroshio anticyclone was also examined.Seasonal mechanisms linking ENSO to SST variability in the East China Sea-Kuroshio Region and its influence on East Asian precipitation were clarified.We found a strong association between Mega-ENSO and the poleward shift of typhoon genesis locations in the western North Pacific,while trans-basin tropical air-sea interac-tions were shown to affect typhoon formation frequency.Furthermore,we identified Antarctic warming-induced South Atlantic warming as a key driver to the 2022 East Asian heatwaves and demonstrated that tropical North Atlantic variability modulates forest wildfire activity in Northeast China.4)We investigated the role of Eurasian soil moisture variability in triggering clustered extreme precipitation events in northern China and evaluated the influence of snow cover on subseasonal temperature variability and predictability.Attribution and projection stud-ies examined drought patterns influenced by land surface factors and land-atmosphere coupling.The physical mechanisms linking land surface processes and land-sea interactions to summer precipitation,extreme Meiyu e-vents,and heavy rainfall in China were further elucidated.Additionally,we assessed the impact of summer irri-gation in North China on the diurnal cycle of precipitation and regional water cycles,as well as the effects of ur-banization on mesoscale convective systems and heavy rainfall in the Pearl River Delta during warm seasons.5)The simulation capabilities of CMIP6 models in representing the subseasonal reversal of the"Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia"pattern were systematically evaluated.A seasonal prediction model for compound extreme heat-hu-midity events in southeastern China was developed.Using an interannual increment approach,a physical-statistical prediction model for summer heavy precipitation days(HPDs)in North China was established.Addi-tionally,deep learning techniques were employed to enhance dynamical model predictions of summer extreme precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin.Further advancements in dynamical model development and their predictive applications were explored.Finally,this article outlines key challenges and re-search priorities for future studies,aiming to advance understanding of extreme weather and climate in China.关键词
极端天气气候事件/海气相互作用/陆面过程/机理/预测Key words
extreme weather and climate events/air-sea interaction/land surface process/mechanism/predic-tion引用本文复制引用
陈海山,马红云,施宁,孙善磊,魏江峰,赵海坤,张杰,韩婷婷,李文铠,桑英涵,王润,张耀存,张文君,尹志聪,陈国森,华文剑,黄丹青,况雪源,刘芸芸..中国极端天气气候研究——"地球系统与全球变化"重点专项项目2024年度最新进展[J].大气科学学报,2025,48(2):177-206,30.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0801600) （2022YFF0801600）
