大气科学学报2025，Vol.48Issue(2)：217-228,12.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20240506001
青藏高原观测对2020年长江中下游地区梅雨降水过程预报的影响
Impact of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau observations on the forecasting of Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020
摘要
Abstract
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau plays a significant role in influencing China's climate and weather pat-terns.Howe ver,the regional observation density is considerably lower than that of eastern China.Despite this spar-sity,observations from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau can significantly affect weather forecasts for downstream areas,such as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.With advancements in the resolution of regional models,many operational forecasting systems in eastern China exclude the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,leaving the impact of its observations on downstream forecast quality unclear.This study uses the CMA-MESO rapid updating cycle system to simulate the Meiyu weather event that occurred in early July 2020 in the middle and lower Yan-gtze River region.The study evaluates the influence of missing observations from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the accuracy of forecasts for downstream weather systems.Results indicate that the absence of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau observations significantly degrades the 24-72-hour forecasts for surface 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind fields in the middle and lower Yangtze River.It also negatively affects precipitation forecasts during the first three days.Analysis of the observational impact highlights that Qinghai-Xizang Plateau observations pri-marily influence the middle and lower Yangtze River region,with the largest variance in the 24-72-hour forecast signal occurring in these areas.Thus,improving forecast quality in the middle and lower Yangtze River requires accounting for upstream observational data from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the spatiotemporal propagation of this.To enhance severe weather forecasting in eastern China,it is crucial to not only increase local observation infrastructure,such as radars and weather stations,but also to deploy additional radars and satellites in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Incorporating three-dimensional observational profiles,such as soundings,and deploying mobile observation stations in regions prone to sudden localized heavy precipitation can significantly improve forecast quality.Additionally,to mitigate the limitations of finite-region models,approaches such as high-low reso-lution nesting,variable-resolution modeling,or blending analyses methods should be adopted to incorporate up-stream information.关键词
青藏高原观测/梅雨期降水/三维变分/CMA-MESO/快速更新分析预报Key words
the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau observations/Meiyu rainfall/3DVar/CMA-MESO/rapid refresh analysis and forecasting引用本文复制引用
庄照荣,田伟红,陈雨潇,陈静..青藏高原观测对2020年长江中下游地区梅雨降水过程预报的影响[J].大气科学学报,2025,48(2):217-228,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000902 （）
2022YFC3004002) （）
国家自然科学基金项目(42375154) （42375154）
