农业环境科学学报2025，Vol.44Issue(3)：750-758,9.DOI:10.11654/jaes.2024-1128
基于逐步回归模型的池塘养殖环境环丙沙星暴露水平预测模型的构建
Construction of a prediction model for ciprofloxacin exposure level in aquaculture pond environment based on stepwise regression model
摘要
Abstract
This study aims to achieve short-term prediction of ciprofloxacin(CIP)residue levels in aquaculture pond water.High-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry(HPLC-MS/MS)was employed to analyze the residues of enrofloxacin(ENR)and CIP in water and sediment samples collected from aquaculture ponds in the Taihu Lake basin.Through comprehensive data analysis,this study revealed significant linear correlations between ENR and CIP concentrations in both pond water and sediment matrices.Furthermore,we systematically investigated the interactions between key physicochemical parameters(temperature,dissolved oxygen,pH,suspended solids,total nitrogen,total phosphorus,and permanganate index)and the following four processes:(1)the relationship between sediment ENR and CIP concentrations;(2)the correlation between water column ENR and CIP levels;(3)the interaction between water column ENR and sediment ENR concentrations;and(4)the association between sediment CIP and water column CIP levels.Through meticulous variable selection and calculation,a predictive model for CIP concentration in sediments was established:C(sed)CIP=0.647+0.191C(sed)ENR-1.358CTP,with a correlation coefficient(R)of 0.805,indicating its predictive value.Additionally,a predictive model for CIP concentration in pond water based on sediment CIP content was formulated:C(wat)CIP=-0.413-0.017C(sed)CIP-0.063A+0.174B with a correlation coefficient R of 0.646,demonstrating good predictive accuracy.The development of these models provides technical support for the effective monitoring of CIP residue levels in aquaculture pond water.By the CIP content in sediments,an estimation of CIP levels in the pond water can be achieved.关键词
环丙沙星/恩诺沙星/回归模型/预测模型Key words
ciprofloxacin/enrofloxacin/regression model/prediction model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
高玉晓,陈曦,马志远,方龙香,裘丽萍,孟顺龙,宋超..基于逐步回归模型的池塘养殖环境环丙沙星暴露水平预测模型的构建[J].农业环境科学学报,2025,44(3):750-758,9.基金项目
中央公益性科研单位基本科研项目(2023JBFM02) （2023JBFM02）
无锡市水产品中新型抗生素污染物的鉴定及快速检测技术开发项目(K20231029) （K20231029）
现代产业技术体系项目(CARS-46) Basic Research Project of Central Public Welfare Research Unit(2023JBFM02) （CARS-46）
Identification and Rapid Detection of New Antibiotic Contaminants in Aquatic Products of Wuxi City(K20231029) （K20231029）
China Agriculture Reasearch System(CARS-46) （CARS-46）
