河北地质大学学报2025，Vol.48Issue(2)：101-112,12.DOI:10.13937/j.cnki.hbdzdxxb.2025.02.012
基于FLUS-Markov耦合模型的县域土地利用变化模拟与情景预测
Simulation and Scenario Prediction of County Land use Change Based on FLUS-Markov Coupling Model
摘要
Abstract
The simulation and prediction of land use change can reveal the mechanism of land use change and provide scientific basis for the optimal use of land resources.The method framework of simulation and prediction of county land use change based on FLUS-Markov coupling model is constructed to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern change of land use in the future.Taking Lai'an County in Anhui Province as the research area,the FLUS-Markov coupling model for simulating land use change in Lai'an County is constructed based on the 30m spatial resolution land use classification data from 2005 to 2020.Through the accuracy verification and optimization of the FLUS-Markov coupling model,the spatial-temporal pattern of land use in Lai'an County in 2025 and 2035 based on three development scenarios,namely inertia development,development and utilization and strict protection is predicted.The research can provide method reference and decision-making basis for the formulation of county land use policy and spatial planning of national land.关键词
FLUS-Markov耦合模型/土地利用变化/模拟/情景预测/来安县Key words
FLUS-Markov coupling model/land use change/simulation/scenario prediction/Lai'an County分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张晓瑞,王萌,闫旭,王振波..基于FLUS-Markov耦合模型的县域土地利用变化模拟与情景预测[J].河北地质大学学报,2025,48(2):101-112,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41771181) （41771181）
合肥工业大学科研项目(W2018JSFW0090) （W2018JSFW0090）
