水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(3)：309-316,327,9.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240266
耦合高斯-极值分布与云模型的防洪调度预案风险分析方法
A method coupled Gaussian-Extreme distribution with Cloud models for risk analysis of flood control operational scheme
摘要
Abstract
The flood disaster seriously threatens the safety of life and property and the rapid and stable develop-ment.It is necessary to accelerate the construction of an intelligent water conservancy system with the functions of"forecast,early warning,rehearsal and pre-plan".This paper focuses on the risk analysis of flood control scheduling plan(FCSP)in the intelligent water conservancy system.A set of FCSP risk analysis index systems is constructed,integrating reservoirs,levees and flood storage areas.Targeting flood risk distributions that do not fully conform to a Gaussian distribution,a risk analysis method for FCSPs based on Gaussian-Extreme value dis-tribution and cloud models is proposed.The risk level of the FCSP is presented in an intuitive manner,and a sys-tematic transformation of the qualitative and quantitative risk of the FCSP is achieved.Taking the five numbered floods in the Yangtze River basin in 2020 as cases for analysis,the results indicate that the risk analysis results of the method in this paper are closer to reality and more reasonable than the Gaussian distribution method,and the risk values and risk ratings of the corresponding flood prevention and dispatching plans under the five numbered floods are 0.18(Class Ⅳ),0.30(Class Ⅲ),0.37(Class Ⅲ),0.19(Class Ⅳ),and 0.40(Class Ⅲ),re-spectively.These findings suggest that the lower-risk plans were adopted for flood prevention and dispatching,thereby ensuring the safety of the Yangtze River Basin.Furthermore,the method in this paper enables real-time evaluation and comparative analysis of the plans,which allows for a systematic analysis of the risk situation of the plans and provides scientific support for the risk analysis of FCSPs.关键词
智慧水利/防洪调度预案/防洪风险分析/指标体系/高斯-极值分布/云模型Key words
intelligent water conservancy/flood control scheduling plan/flood risk analysis/indicator system/Gaussian-Extreme distribution/Cloud model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
康玲,廖武丰,周丽伟,温云亮..耦合高斯-极值分布与云模型的防洪调度预案风险分析方法[J].水利学报,2025,56(3):309-316,327,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002704) （2022YFC3002704）
