水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(3)：398-410,13.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240302
机理-数据融合与残差修正的土石坝渗压预测模型研究
Study on the seepage prediction model of earth-rock dams based on mechanism-data fusion and residual correction
摘要
Abstract
The mechanistic models can predict and evaluate the seepage safety state of earth-rock dams,which of-fer clear physical meaning and good interpretations,but their prediction accuracy fluctuates greatly.To enhance this accuracy,a fusion model that incorporates a data-driven deep learning approach was introduce in this study,and the Sparrow Search Algorithm(SSA)and Radial Basis Function(RBF)were employed to invert the permea-bility coefficient.This process constructs an SSA-RBF surrogate model for predicting seepage pressure,yielding both the model's predictive values and a residual sequence.Then,the residual sequence was decomposed by u-sing Variational Mode Decomposition(VMD),training a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural network to ob-tain a model for correcting the residual sequence.By overlaying the mechanistic model with the data-driven model,an SSA-RBF-VMD-LSTM fusion model was constructed,which enables accurate predictions of seepage water lev-els.The engineering case demonstrates that the model proposed in this paper possesses high predictive accuracy,with improvements of 89.64％,69.59％,and 60.45％in prediction accuracy compared to statistical models,LSTM models,and SSA-RBF-LSTM models,respectively.Notably,even when the seepage process line under-goes significant fluctuations,the model is still capable of providing timely and accurate predictions,showcasing good stability and extrapolation capabilities.These attributes make the model worthy of practical application and dissemination.关键词
土石坝/代理模型/麻雀搜索算法/变分模态分解/LSTM神经网络/机理-数据驱动融合Key words
earth-rock dam/surrogate models/sparrow search algorithm/Variational Modal Decomposition/LSTM neural networks/mechanism-data-driven fusion分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
黄昊冉,谷艳昌,陈斯煜,王士军,黄海兵..机理-数据融合与残差修正的土石坝渗压预测模型研究[J].水利学报,2025,56(3):398-410,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51979175,52309157) （51979175,52309157）
南京水利科学研究院研究生学位论文基金项目(Yy724005) （Yy724005）
南京水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(Y723008,Y722003,Y723002) （Y723008,Y722003,Y723002）
