外科理论与实践2025，Vol.30Issue(1)：34-40,7.DOI:10.16139/j.1007-9610.2025.01.07
1992-2021年上海市徐汇区户籍居民胰腺癌死亡率趋势分析
Trends analysis of pancreatic cancer mortality in Xuhui district,Shanghai from 1992 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective To study the death status of pancreatic cancer among residents in Xuhui district,Shanghai,from 1992 to 2021,and analyze its trends of change,so as to provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of pancreatic cancer.Methods Based on the database of Shanghai death registration system from 1992 to 2021,the crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,age-specific mortality rate and other indicators of pancreatic cancer among registered residents in Xuhui district were calculated.The Joinpoint software was used to analyze the trends of average annual percent change(AAPC)of pancreatic cancer mortality rate,and the age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age effect,period effect and birth cohort effect pairs significant changes in pancreatic cancer mortality.Results In 2021,the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in Xuhui district,Shanghai,ranked fourth among malignant tumors,and the winning rate and world standard rate of the whole population,males and females were 8.34/100 000(8.81/100 000,7.98/100 000)and 7.28/100 000(7.69/100 000,6.96/100 000),respectively,with males higher than females.AAPC of crude mortality rate and the standardized(6)mortality rate were higher in males than that in females.The age-specific mortality rate increased with the increase of age,and the highest mortality rate was found in 60-84 years old group.The age-period-cohort model showed that from 1992 to 2021,the annual net shift of pancreatic cancer mortality among the whole population,male and female residents in Xuhui district,Shanghai,was 1.22%,1.58%,1.15%(P=0.20,0.19,0.45)respectively,and the time trend was not significant.From the perspective of age effect,the risk of death from pancreatic cancer in the whole population and with age deviation in males had an obvious trend with increasing age(P<0.05),while the age effect in females had no obvious trend.From the perspective of period effect,no period deviation was significant in the whole population,males and females(P>0.05).In terms of cohort effects,there were significant differences in the whole population and the male cohort deviations(P<0.05).No significant cohort effect was observed in the female population.Conclusions The mortality rate of pancreatic cancer among registered residents in Xuhui district,Shanghai from 1992 to 2021,was on the rise,especially in the 60-84 years old group and male.The prevention and control of pancreatic cancer needs to develop effective epidemic prevention measures for corresponding populations.关键词
胰腺癌/标化死亡率/年度变化百分比/年龄-时期-队列模型Key words
Pancreatic cancer/Standardized mortality rate/Annual percent change(APC)/Age-period-cohort model分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
徐荆庶,施建华,顾海雁,陈蕾,钱孝琳,陆璐,钮登..1992-2021年上海市徐汇区户籍居民胰腺癌死亡率趋势分析[J].外科理论与实践,2025,30(1):34-40,7.基金项目
上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划人才项目(2023)(GWVI-11.2-YQ07) （2023）
