西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.45Issue(2)：26-40,15.DOI:10.15896/j.xjtuskxb.202502003
中国城市人口高质量发展水平测度及其驱动因素研究
Measurement of the High-Quality Development Level of China's Urban Population and Its Driving Factors
摘要
Abstract
Chinese-style modernization is defined by its large population,and population development plays a crucial role in the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.As Chinese-style modernization progresses,challenges such as aging,declining birth rates,and regional disparities in population growth demand urgent attention to high-quality population development.Addressing these challenges requires an understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution and the driving factors of high-quality urban population development,enabling targeted strategies for its promotion. This paper constructs an evaluation system for high-quality population development based on three dimensions:population quality,size,and structure.Using the entropy method,the study measures the level of high-quality population development in 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2020.The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation methods are applied to analyze regional disparities and dynamic trends.Additionally,the study employs a Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)with both spatial and temporal fixed effects to examine the key drivers of urban population high-quality development. The findings reveal the following:first,urban high-quality population development in China shows a steady upward trend,although the growth rate has slowed.Spatial distribution follows a gradient pattern,with high development in the east and south,and low development in the west and north.Second,regional disparities persist and continue to widen.Inter-group differences across the east-west axis and intra-group differences along the north-south axis are the primary drivers of this spatial differentiation.Third,urban high-quality population development is influenced by various factors and demonstrates significant regional heterogeneity.Technological innovation and educational support are key positive drivers,while high living and housing costs,as well as environmental pollution,are major constraints.Enhancing regional cooperation and expanding positive spillover effects are critical for promoting high-quality urban population development. This paper contributes to the existing literature in three aspects:first,it constructs an evaluation system for urban population high-quality development tailored to China's national context.Second,it fills a gap in national-level research by using empirical data from 283 cities.Third,it provides a quantitative analysis of regional disparities and their driving factors,offering valuable scientific evidence for policy-making.The findings provide a strong theoretical foundation and practical guidance for advancing high-quality urban population development in China,particularly in terms of regional cooperation and resource optimization.关键词
中国式现代化/人口高质量发展/城市人口高质量发展指数/人口素质/人口规模/人口结构/区域差异Key words
Chinese-style modernization/high-quality population development/index of high-quality development in urban population/population quality/population size/demographic structure/regional differences分类
社会学引用本文复制引用
袁晓玲,黄晓洲,刘壤..中国城市人口高质量发展水平测度及其驱动因素研究[J].西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,45(2):26-40,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金青年项目(23CTJ008) （23CTJ008）
全国统计科学研究项目(2023LY029) （2023LY029）
国家资助博士后研究人员计划项目(GZB20230583) （GZB20230583）
陕西省博士后基金项目(2023BSHEDZZ92). （2023BSHEDZZ92）
