中国动物检疫2025，Vol.42Issue(3)：27-33,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-944X.2025.03.005
某活禽批发市场通过外售禽类和转运笼具扩散H9亚型禽流感病毒的定量风险评估
Quantitative Risk Assessment on Transmission of H9 Subtype AIV through Movement of Poultry and Cages by a Live Poultry Wholesale Market in Western China
摘要
Abstract
In order to assess the risk of transmission of H9 subtype avian influenza virus(AIV-H9)through selling poultry and movement of cages by a live poultry wholesale market in western China in 2023,and to find out risk factors for specific prevention and control,the risk pathway that could cause transmission of the pathogen was drawn using a quantitative risk assessment method,and simulated calculation was performed for relevant parameters using the@Risk software to find out those affecting the results of the model by sensitivity analysis.The results showed that the probability of transmission of AIV-H9 via one batch of poultry sold by the market was 1.38×10-4(95%CI:0.77×10-4-2.12×10-4),and that via cages for transporting live poultry was 3.00×10-3(95%CI:0.74×10-3-7.20×10-3).Sensitivity analysis results showed that the risk of transmission of AIV-H9 through selling poultry was mainly determined by the average batch prevalence of chickens at sales stalls,and that via cages was mainly due to the proportion of cages taken away from the market each time live poultry was introduced.Accordingly,the market was recommended to strengthen effective decontamination,reduce movement of cages and to improve the management for such movement,with a view to providing a reference for prevention and control of any transmission of AIV-H9 from live poultry wholesale markets.关键词
H9亚型禽流感/活禽批发市场/扩散/定量风险评估Key words
AIV-H9/live poultry wholesale market/transmission/quantitative risk assessment分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
姚玲,阳爱国,陈斌,周立新,岳建国,李敏,张毅,梁璐琪,周潇潇,叶斌..某活禽批发市场通过外售禽类和转运笼具扩散H9亚型禽流感病毒的定量风险评估[J].中国动物检疫,2025,42(3):27-33,7.基金项目
国家成都农业科技中心地方财政专项(NASC2023ST11) （NASC2023ST11）
四川省科技计划项目(2022ZDZX0017) （2022ZDZX0017）
中国兽医现场流行病学培训项目(CFETPV) （CFETPV）
