中国动物检疫2025，Vol.42Issue(3)：34-38,76,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-944X.2025.03.006
禽流感病毒通过活禽调运传入浙江省某活禽批发市场的定量风险评估
Quantitative Risk Assessment on AIV Transmission to a Live Poultry Wholesale Market in Zhejiang Province via Live Poultry Transportation
摘要
Abstract
In order to assess the entry risk of avian influenza virus(AIV)to a live poultry wholesale market in Zhejiang Province via live poultry transportation,a pathway map of entry risk evaluation was drawn using the scenario tree analysis method according to the data of transportation and AIV surveillance on the market,to conduct simulated calculation using@Risk software,and the entry risk was quantitatively analyzed.The results showed that the probability of introducing AIV via transportation of one live poultry from other province was 5.33×10-4(95%CI:2.60×10-4-9.90×10-4),and the average probability per batch was 0.448(95%CI:0.247-0.649);sensitivity analysis results showed that introduction of one live duck from an infected farm had the greatest impact on the entry risk.It was recommended to reduce the entry risk of AIV through improving the regulation for live poultry transportation at source,constructing formal animal checkpoints,strengthening the management for markets,and conducting consumers'awareness campaigns.关键词
禽流感病毒/活禽/调运/定量风险评估/浙江省Key words
AIV/live poultry/transportation/quantitative risk assessment/Zhejiang Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
吴雪军,常晓静,郑思思,周彩琴,张传亮..禽流感病毒通过活禽调运传入浙江省某活禽批发市场的定量风险评估[J].中国动物检疫,2025,42(3):34-38,76,6.基金项目
浙江省"领雁"研发攻关计划项目(2023C02023) （2023C02023）
