中国农业大学学报2025，Vol.30Issue(6)：224-235,12.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2025.06.20
农村人口老龄化对粮食生产能力的影响
Impacts of rural population aging on food production capacity:Based on the moderating effect of land transfer to new types of operating entities
摘要
Abstract
To explore the challenges of"who will farm"and"how to farm better"under the backdrop of rural population aging,a panel data set from 30 provinces in China between 2009 and 2022 was used.Two-way fixed effects model was employed to empirically examine the impact of rural population aging on grain production capacitto focusing on the moderating effect of land transfer on new types of agricultural business entities.The results indicate:1)Rural population aging significantly reduces grain production capacity,and promoting land transfer to new types of agricultural business entities is an important means to alleviate this negative impact,which remains valid after multiple robustness checks;2)Geographically,compared to central regions,the rural population aging significantly decreases grain production capacity in eastern and western regions,while the positive moderating effect of land transfer to new types of agricultural business entities is only evident in eastern regions;3)In terms of terrain conditions,the rural population aging significantly suppresses grain production capacity in both flat and steep areas,but the mitigating effect of land transfer to new types of agricultural business entities is only observed in flat areas;4)From the perspective of mechanization levels,the rural population aging has a stronger inhibitory effect on grain production capacity in low-mechanization areas compared to high-mechanization areas,and promoting land transfer to new types of agricultural business entities can effectively alleviate the adverse impact.The study recommends continuing to encourage and cultivate new types of agricultural business entities,guiding older farmers with lower production capacities to efficiently and orderly transfer their land to these entities to fully tap into the potential for increasing grain yields and strengthening national food security.关键词
农村人口老龄化/粮食生产能力/新型农业经营主体/土地流转/粮食单产Key words
rural population aging/grain production capacity/new agricultural management entities/land transfer/grain yield per unit area分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
罗叶,肖海峰..农村人口老龄化对粮食生产能力的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2025,30(6):224-235,12.基金项目
农业农村部和财政部项目(CARS-39-22) （CARS-39-22）
