中国农业大学学报2025，Vol.30Issue(6)：236-247,12.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2025.06.21
中国农业碳排放强度的时空交互与跃迁机制
Spatiotemporal interaction and transition mechanism of carbon emission intensity in Chinese agriculture
摘要
Abstract
To achieve carbon emission reduction and meet the dual carbon goal,low-carbon development in the agricultural has become an inevitable trend.From the perspective of spatiotemporal interaction,various spatial analysis methods are employed to explore the pattern differences,dynamic changes,and transition mechanisms of agricultural carbon emission intensity in China.The results indicate that:1)Between 2006 and 2023,the average carbon emission intensity of Chinese agriculture first increased and then fluctuated downward.From 2006 to 2017,the emission intensity was highest in the Northeast and North China regions,while from 2018 to 2023,the North and South China regions showed the most significant reduction effects.2)The spatial correlation of agricultural carbon emission intensity first strengthened and then weakened,with the level of spatial clustering tending to stabilize.3)During the spatiotemporal transition of agricultural carbon emission intensity,there is a inertia effect.Most areas in the Northeast and North China consistently exhibit high carbon emission intensity characteristics,becoming key regions that constrain coordinated agricultural emission reduction.The weak positive correlation in the spatiotemporal network pattern accounts for the highest proportion.4)The transition of agricultural carbon emission intensity from north to south follows a"same-direction development—same-direction constraint—opposite-direction development"stratified progressive model.The provincial quantile response types are mainly driven by high-quantile driving and high-quantile constraint models.Therefore,formulating differentiated emission reduction strategies,strengthening regional cooperation and coordination,and enhancing the sustainability and flexibility of policies are effective measures to reduce agricultural carbon emission intensity.关键词
农业碳排放强度/LISA时间路径/跃迁机制/驱动模式Key words
agricultural carbon intensity/LISA time path/transition mechanism/driving mode分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
袁世一,杨淼..中国农业碳排放强度的时空交互与跃迁机制[J].中国农业大学学报,2025,30(6):236-247,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(62103418) （62103418）
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(JBYW-AII-2024-30) （JBYW-AII-2024-30）
