中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：30-43,14.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250203
湖北省大豆种植面积逆势恢复之谜:耕地禀赋约束下的农户作物替代优先序
RESEARCH ON COUNTERTREND RECOVERY OF SOYBEAN-PLANTING AREA IN HUBEI PROVINCE:FARMERS'CROP SUBSTITUTION PRIORITY ORDER UNDER THE CONSTRAINT OF FARMLAND ENDOWMENT
摘要
Abstract
Enhancing both planting area and production of soybean is the primary target of China's Soybean Revitalization Plan.Unlike many other provinces,Hubei province,located in non-major production areas,has been witnessing its soybean planting area recover close to the level of the beginning of the new century since 2014.This research constructed an analytical framework based on farmland endowment constraint and farmers' crop substitution priority order,proposed a theoretical explanation for the above recovery phenomenon,and conducted empirical tests by using macro and micro datasets.The findings were listed as follows:(1)The layout of soybean production in Hubei province,during 2010 and 2020,shifted from equal distribution between mountainous areas and plains to domination of Jianghan Plain,suggesting that farmers' switch to or expansion of soybean cultivation in Jianghan Plain directly contributed to restoration of soybean planting area in Hubei province.(2)The root cause of this recovery lied in cotton farmers' crop displacement incurred by persistent decline or slump of seed cotton prices and the subsequent lower comparative benefit of cotton production activity.(3)While rice was the optimal alternative crop for cotton in Jianghan Plain,cotton farmers had to substitute suboptimal dryland crops such as soybeans and corn rather than rice for cotton in plots with poor irrigation conditions.(4)When substituting out of cotton,farmers acted out no distinct choice preferences between soybean and maize given that maize,in Jianghan Plain,had no overwhelming advantage upon both yield and benefit compared to soybeans under the limitation of soil conditions.So,this research provide a reference for stabilization and increase of soybean area,as well as enhancement of soybean self-sufficiency.关键词
大豆/种植面积/棉花比较效益/农户作物替代优先序/耕地水源禀赋Key words
soybean/planting area/comparative benefits of cotton/farmers' crop substitution priority order/en-dowment of farmland water source分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
阮冬燕,周晶,王娟..湖北省大豆种植面积逆势恢复之谜:耕地禀赋约束下的农户作物替代优先序[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(2):30-43,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"新形势下我国粮食安全战略问题研究"(22&ZD079) （22&ZD079）
国家自然科学基金项目"打破农业纵向分工的'季节性诅咒':中国经验及其运行机理"(72203068) （72203068）
教育部人文社会科学基金项目"种植制度、劳动分工与中国稻麦联合收割机分布密度的南北逆转研究"(22YJC790186) （22YJC790186）
湖北省教育厅社会科学研究一般项目"种植制度、农时长度与农机跨区作业服务市场分化"(23Y082) （23Y082）
