浙江电力2025，Vol.44Issue(4)：72-83,12.DOI:10.19585/j.zjdl.202504008
交直流配电系统预想风险场景集构建与模式化应对方法
Prospective risk scenario set construction and patternized response strategy for AC/DC distribution system
摘要
Abstract
The increasingly complex architecture of distribution networks and the expanding presence of new types of source-load resources have introduced numerous operational risks and challenges to distribution systems.Prob-lems such as voltage violations and branch overloads occur frequently,severely impacting the security and reliabil-ity of the distribution systems.Therefore,enhancing the risk assessment and rapid risk response capabilities of the distribution systems is urgently needed.To enable rapid risk response in AC/DC distribution systems,a method for constructing a prospective risk scenario set and a modeling-based response strategy is proposed.First,a risk assess-ment framework for AC/DC distribution system operations is developed based on uncertain power flow calculation re-sults,identifying potential risk elements in the systems.A method for constructing a prospective risk scenario set is proposed,taking into account the occurrence probability and impact of risk scenarios.Next,a method for generating a repository of response strategies for prospective risk scenarios is introduced,focusing on the key risk elements in the system's prospective risk scenarios.By incorporating immune risk theory,a modeling-based response strategy for control signal generation is proposed,utilizing fuzzy evaluation to assess the overall operational state of distribu-tion systems.Finally,a method for generating modeling-based response strategies based on the similarity of risk sce-narios is presented.Case studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling-based re-sponse method.关键词
交直流配电系统/不确定潮流/运行风险评估/预想风险场景集/模式化应对方法Key words
AC/DC distribution systems/uncertain power flow/operational risk assessment/prospective risk sce-nario set/modeling-based response method引用本文复制引用
唐兆杰,张铭宸,詹惠瑜,柏晶晶,罗李子..交直流配电系统预想风险场景集构建与模式化应对方法[J].浙江电力,2025,44(4):72-83,12.基金项目
江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项(BE2023093-1) （BE2023093-1）
国家自然科学基金委员会-国际(地区)合作与交流项目(52061635104) （地区）
