肿瘤防治研究2025，Vol.52Issue(4)：319-323,5.DOI:10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2025.24.1182
1990-2021年中国居民结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势及预测
Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective To examine the current status and trends of colorectal cancer(CRC)burden among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021.Methods Data on CRC burden in China,Asia,and the global population from 1990 to 2021 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database for descriptive analysis.An age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the effects of age,period,and cohort on CRC mortality and to forecast changes in disease burden.Results In 2021,China's age-standardized mortality rate,prevalence rate,and DALY rate for CRC were higher than global and Asian averages.The estimated annual percentage changes(EAPC)from 1990 to 2021 were-0.49%(95%CI:-0.55%to-0.43%)for mortality,3.17%(95%CI:3.03%-3.31%)for prevalence,and-0.62%(95%CI:-0.71%to-0.54%)for DALYs.Areas with high and medium-high sociodemographic indexes(SDIs)showed significant decreases in standardized mortality and DALY rates,but these rates remained higher compared with other regions.CRC mortality increased with age in the Chinese population,more prominently in males than in females.Using the 2002-2006 period as a reference(RR=1),the period effect on CRC mortality risk for women was higher than that for men until 2004,after which it declined considerably.With the 1957 birth cohort as a reference(RR=1),CRC mortality risk generally decreased across subsequent birth cohorts.Predictions indicate that by 2035,the standardized prevalence rate will be 267.21 per 100 000,and the standardized mortality rate will be 12.29 per 100 000.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,China's age-standardized CRC mortality and DALY rates have decreased,while the standardized prevalence rate has increased.These findings suggest the government to establish a comprehensive multi-level CRC prevention network.关键词
结直肠癌/中国居民/疾病负担/预测Key words
Colorectal cancer/Chinese population/Burden of disease/Forecasting分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
王㠉州,朱娟芳,周瑾,张盼,唐琴..1990-2021年中国居民结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势及预测[J].肿瘤防治研究,2025,52(4):319-323,5.基金项目
Jiangsu Senile Health Research Project(No.LKM2023009) （No.LKM2023009）
Excellent Management Plan of Jiangsu Cancer Hospital(No.ZG202008) 江苏省老年健康科研项目(LKM2023009) （No.ZG202008）
江苏省肿瘤医院卓越管理计划(ZG202008) （ZG202008）
