发电技术2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：399-408,10.DOI:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.23142
基于改进云模型的区域电网电能替代综合效益评价
Evaluation of Comprehensive Benefits of Electric Energy Substitution in Regional Power Grids Based on Improved Cloud Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objectives]To address issues such as insufficient multi-dimensional coordination,incomplete quantification of environmental benefits,and the lack of dynamic feedback in evaluating the benefits of electric energy substitution in regional power grids,a dynamic evaluation method based on multi-source data fusion is proposed to enhance the decision-making accuracy of electric energy substitution projects.[Methods]A three-dimensional evaluation index system covering"supply-side optimization,demand-side transformation,and environmental emission reduction synergy"is established,identifying 21 indicators including cross-regional consumption capacity,electric substitution penetration rate,and pollutant reduction,thereby forming a multi-level quantitative evaluation framework.A coupling weighting strategy based on the entropy weight method and an improved rank correlation method is developed to balance subjective and objective weight deviations through linear weighting.A Bayesian dynamic cloud model is proposed,optimizing the hyper-entropy parameters of the cloud model by incorporating a Bayesian feedback mechanism to achieve dynamic correction of evaluation results.[Results]The proposed model can effectively quantify the comprehensive benefits of electric energy substitution,accurately identify shortcomings in cross-regional consumption and terminal substitution,and improve evaluation accuracy through the dynamic feedback mechanism,enhancing alignment with practical engineering.[Conclusions]This evaluation method overcomes the bottlenecks in traditional benefit evaluation,such as single-dimensional indicators,inaccurate weight allocation,and significant static deviations,providing a reference for improving the accuracy of electric energy substitution benefit evaluation.关键词
新型电力系统/新能源/低碳转型/碳中和/区域电网/电能替代/贝叶斯动态云模型/综合效益评价/碳排放Key words
new power system/new energy/low-carbon transition/carbon neutrality/regional power grid/electric energy substitution/Bayesian dynamic cloud model/comprehensive benefit evaluation/carbon emission分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
郑杨,任禹丞,王雨薇,徐丁吉,杨慧敏..基于改进云模型的区域电网电能替代综合效益评价[J].发电技术,2025,46(2):399-408,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(62293500,62293505) （62293500,62293505）
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5400-202318574A-3-2-ZN).Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(62293500,62293505) （5400-202318574A-3-2-ZN）
Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(5400-202318574A-3-2-ZN). （5400-202318574A-3-2-ZN）
