防灾减灾工程学报2025，Vol.45Issue(2)：365-374,10.DOI:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20230914001
基于Vickery模型的气候变暖台风路径模拟
Typhoon Track Simulation under Global Warming Scenarios Based on Vickery Model
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the potential effect of different global warming scenarios on future typhoon track,this study utilized the predicted values of sea surface temperature(SST)over the next century under three global warming scenarios provided by CCCma to conduct full-track typhoon simulations in the Northwest Pacific.The annual frequency of typhoons was randomly simulated according to the probability density function(PDF)of historical observations,which followed a time-invariant negative binomial distribution.Typhoon tracks and intensities were simulated using the Vickery model.For the gradient wind field model of typhoons,improvements were made based on the Georgious gradient wind field model.An artificial neural network(ANN)was used to refit the relation for the radius of maximum wind speed,with typhoon central pressure deficit,latitude,and SST as inputs.This en-abled the integration of climate change effects into the time-varying PDF of annual extreme wind speeds.It revealed the potential effects of SST increases caused by climate change on the frequency of typhoon landfalls,typhoon movement speed,typhoon movement direction,and typhoon central pres-sure deficit.The results showed that the effect of global warming on annual extreme wind speed PDF exhibited regional variability.In most regions,the mean and dispersion of the annual extreme wind speed PDF tend to increase,while in a few regions,the long-term trend remained unaffected by glob-al warming.The Gumbel distribution was employed to fit the annual extreme wind speed PDF.Both the location and shape parameters of the Gumbel distribution exhibited time-varying characteristics.The errors in linear fitting were quantified using a normal distribution and were referred to as estima-tion uncertainty.关键词
台风危害/气候变化/路径模拟/海平面温度/负二项分布Key words
typhoon hazard/climate change/track simulation/sea surface temperature/negative bino-mial distribution分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈清河,袁赛杰,李瑞华,罗海生,陈旭骏,谭俊峰..基于Vickery模型的气候变暖台风路径模拟[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2025,45(2):365-374,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004105)、国家自然科学基金项目(52078383,52008314)资助 （2022YFC3004105）
