分布式能源2025，Vol.10Issue(2)：90-97,8.DOI:10.16513/j.2096-2185.DE.(2025)010-02-0090-08
基于随机降阶与随机响应面法的电网概率潮流计算
Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Based on Stochastic Reduced Order Method and Stochastic Response Surface Method
摘要
Abstract
Source-load uncertainty is one of the typical characteristics of new power systems,so it is necessary to calculate the probabilistic tidal currents of power grids considering source-load variations.Aiming at the blindness of stochastic response surface method(SRSM)in constructing polynomial chaotic expansion by random sampling to generate samples,this paper adopts stochastic reduced order method(SROM)to select important samples in order to improve the accuracy of calculation results.The light intensity,wind speed parameter and load are taken as random input variables,the source-load probability model is established and its correlation is processed,and the polynomial chaotic expansion of probabilistic tidal current is generated by using SROM to select the important samples of the three-dimensional input variables;the probabilistic tidal current computation method of the electric power system based on SROM-SRSM is proposed and the detailed computation process is given;the improved IEEE 33-node system is used as an example to the simulation time and accuracy under different polynomial orders are compared;the 3rd order polynomial chaotic expansion is used as the basis of probabilistic tidal current calculation;the results of probabilistic tidal current calculation under different calculation methods are compared and the probability distribution of tidal current state variables is obtained.The results show that compared with the traditional Monte Carlo method,the SROM-SRSM proposed in this paper reduces the computation time,and the accuracy of the probabilistic tidal current calculation results is improved by adopting the stochastic descending order method to optimize the samples.关键词
概率潮流/源荷随机性/不确定性分析/随机响应面法(SRSM)/随机降阶法(SROM)Key words
probabilistic power flow/randomness of source-load/uncertainty analysis/stochastic response surface method(SRSM)/stochastic reduced order method(SROM)分类
能源与动力引用本文复制引用
马玉涛,刘青,李龙威,刘运锋..基于随机降阶与随机响应面法的电网概率潮流计算[J].分布式能源,2025,10(2):90-97,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划基金项目(2023YFC3009800)This work is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3009800) （2023YFC3009800）
