海河水利Issue(4)：66-73,80,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2025.04.014
分水江流域水库群联合预报调度研究
Joint Forecasting and Dispatching of Reservoirs in Fenshuijiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
To address the lack of coordination in joint operation among reservoirs in the Fen River Basin and the peak-shifting scheduling issues with the downstream Fuchunjiang Reservoir,a flood forecasting model and multi-objective optimization scheduling model based on a group of four medium-and large-sized reservoirs—Yinggong Reservoir,Huaguangtan Reservoir,Qingshandian Reservoir,and Fen River Reservoir—were established.Simulation scenarios for flood control scheduling,benefit-oriented scheduling,and rule-based scheduling were conducted to provide theoretical support for basin flood control operations.A historical review of the"20190713"heavy rainstorm event showed that the forecasted peak flow and flood volume errors for each reservoir were reasonable,with an average deterministic coefficient of 0.93,indicating good fitting performance.By incorporating downstream Fuchunjiang Reservoir's peak-shifting scheduling into the objective function and solving the multi-objective optimization model using the NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm,results demonstrated that,compared with historical operations,the global optimization scheduling increased the average peak reduction rate of the reservoir group from 58.91％to 61.08％,and advanced the peak occurrence time at the downstream Fen River station by 4 hours.This effectively achieved peak-shifting scheduling.Joint forecasting and scheduling of the reservoir group can provide scientific contingency plans for future basin flood control.关键词
分水江流域/洪水预报/水库群联合调度/NSGA-Ⅱ算法/错峰调度Key words
Fenshuijiang River Basin/flood forecasting/joint operation of reservoir group/NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm/peak stagger scheduling分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张玉伦,陈洲,邓翔,杨丽丽..分水江流域水库群联合预报调度研究[J].海河水利,2025,(4):66-73,80,9.基金项目
浙江省水利科技计划项目(RA2204) （RA2204）
