农业技术经济Issue(4)：124-144,21.
俄乌冲突导致的国际粮食价格波动效应与我国的应对措施
Effect of International Food Price Fluctuation Caused by the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China's Countermeasures
摘要
Abstract
The conflict between Russia-Ukraine triggered short-term sharp fluctuations in in-ternational food prices,which had a differentiated impact on countries with different dependence on food imports.This paper constructs an open economic model and analyzes the mechanism of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the fluctuation of international food prices.The counter-factual test and VAR are used to study the fluctuation of international food prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the differential impact of national economies with different dependence on food imports.It shows that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the rise of inter-national food prices and the intensification of food price fluctuations.The rise in international grain prices and fluctuations in grain prices have led to a depreciation of exchange rates and a decline in stock markets in countries with higher dependence on grain imports.Policy recommendations are to attach great importance to food security issues,prevent short-term risks caused by fluctuations in international food prices,strengthen international trade and cooperation in grain trading,and en-hance the resilience of the foreign exchange and stock markets.关键词
俄乌冲突/国际粮食价格波动/差异化影响/应对措施Key words
Russia-Ukraine conflict/International food price volatility/Differential impact/Countermeasures引用本文复制引用
马理,张人中,马威..俄乌冲突导致的国际粮食价格波动效应与我国的应对措施[J].农业技术经济,2025,(4):124-144,21.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"发达国家货币政策跨国传导的复杂溢出效应:开放经济条件下的DSGE多国模型与VAR数据检验"(编号:72073042),国家社会科学基金一般项目"俄罗斯被剔除SWIFT的影响效应与我国加快推CIPS建设的路径选择"(编号:23BGJ089),湖南省研究生科研创新项目"促进湖南省低碳产业发展的绿色金融政策研究"(编号:QL20220110). （编号:72073042）
