热带地理2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：527-539,13.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240785
气候变化下沿海城市极端复合洪涝灾害危险性预估
Hazard Assessment of Extreme Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Cities under Climate Change:A Case Study of Haikou City
摘要
Abstract
Coastal cities are highly vulnerable to compound flooding in which multiple flood drivers interact via complex nonlinear mechanisms under climate change.Although numerous studies have focused on individual flood drivers,integrated analyses of the spatiotemporal variations and compound effects remain limited.This study applied a high-resolution MRI-AGCM3-2-S climate model and the TempestExtremes tracking algorithm to construct a 6-hourly Tropical Cyclone(TC)track dataset affecting Haikou from 1960 to 2099.Storm tides during the TCs were simulated using the D-Flow FM model,whereas upstream river discharges were modeled with CaMa-Flood,incorporating climate-model-derived runoff data.Using rainfall data from the climate model,we applied the peak-over-threshold method and extreme value analysis to systematically assess changes in storm tides,rainfall,and upstream discharge under climate change.These analyses guided the construction of compound flood scenarios for simulating extreme events.Using a compound flood simulation model,we assessed the hazards under 10-year and 50-year Return Periods(RPs)for historical(1960-2014)and future(2015-2099)periods.Results indicate that significant differences exist in the compound flood characteristics between historical and future periods.In the 90th percentile scenario,all three flood drivers exhibited higher future thresholds,suggesting an increased risk of compound extreme flood events.The probability of concurrent heavy rainfall and high discharge events increased by 40.9%,whereas the probability of simultaneous high storm surge and high discharge events increased by 58.3%.Despite the potential reduction in extreme event intensity,the frequency of compounding events has increased significantly.Extreme value analysis revealed that extreme storm surges and upstream discharge events became more severe and extreme rainfall events showed a decreasing trend.For high RPs(e.g.,50-year events),the projected storm tides and upstream discharges significantly exceeded historical levels.Specifically,projected increases in storm surge levels(+0.24 m under 50-year RP)and upstream discharge(+1,271.13 m³/s)are offset by a 16.5%decline in 100-year accumulated rainfall for Haikou when compared to historical period.Third,compound flood simulations showed that under the 10-year RP scenario,the total inundation area slightly increased,but the flood volume and maximum depth decreased,indicating the stabilization of the flood hazard.However,under the 50-year RP scenario,both the inundation area and flood volume increased substantially,with the area experiencing flood depths greater than 3 m expanding by 56.5%.The most severe flooding occurred along the northern coastal areas and banks of the Nandu River,where the inundation extent and flood severity increased markedly.These findings provide valuable insights for flood risk assessments and adaptive planning in coastal cities facing intensifying climate-induced hazards.关键词
复合洪涝/高分辨率气候模式/热带气旋/危险性评估/气候变化/海口市Key words
compound flooding/high-resolution climate model/tropical cyclones/hazard assessment/climate change/Haikou city分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
刘青,吴国凤,姚前,许瀚卿,牛怡莹,魏旭辰,王军,李梦雅..气候变化下沿海城市极端复合洪涝灾害危险性预估[J].热带地理,2025,45(4):527-539,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目:深度不确定影响下沿海地区复合极端洪水风险形成机制与风险适应研究(42371088) （42371088）
北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室开放课题(2023-KF-09) （2023-KF-09）
