热带地理2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：575-588,14.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240798
气候变暖背景下中国马拉松赛事高温暴露预警与评估
Early Warning and Assessment of Chinese Marathon Events'Exposure to High Temperature under Climate Warming
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the number of marathons in China has expanded rapidly,but the impact of high-temperature weather has become more apparent.Current high-temperature early warning systems lack tailored thresholds and unified standards for sports scenarios.This study aimed to develop an advanced early warning system for high-temperature exposure during marathons to enhance event safety and sustainability.The urgency of addressing high-temperature risks in sporting events is underscored by an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events.These events not only threaten participants'health,but also challenge the organizational resilience of sporting events.Traditional early warning systems,designed primarily for general public health protection,fall short of providing the specificity required for sports settings.This study addresses this gap by proposing a refined early warning framework that is sensitive to the unique demands of marathons.Methodologically,this research moves beyond the limitations of a single air temperature index by employing the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature(WBGT)as the primary indicator for thermal environment assessment.WBGT is recognized as a comprehensive metric that integrates temperature,humidity,and radiant heat,making it more suitable for evaluating heat stress during outdoor activities.By analyzing the relationship between human thermal comfort and meteorological factors,the study maps the Thermal Humidity Index(THI)sensory grading criteria to the WBGT system,creating a dynamic"red-orange-yellow"three-level early-warning system.The threshold setting considered the metabolic heat accumulation of marathoners during prolonged activity and was validated using six decades of national-scale meteorological data.Based on this,this study introduced the Marathon Exposure Index(MEI),which quantifies risks from three dimensions:exposure intensity(early warning level weight),exposure quantity(event frequency),and exposure value(event-grade coefficient).Results indicate a significant"long-south-short-north"pattern in China's marathon high-temperature exposure period.Southern regions,such as the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the southeastern coast,have experienced extended high-temperature exposure periods compared with the historical baseline(1961-1990),with frequent red-alert zones coinciding with high-density Class A event areas(such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta).Further temporal analysis revealed that with accelerating global warming,extreme high-temperature red-alert events in China are becoming more frequent and prolonged.The innovative value of the study's findings is reflected in three key aspects.The early warning mechanism design established a graded-threshold dynamic-response-linked paradigm.By linking WBGT thresholds with event response measures,it enables a management paradigm shift from"passive response"to"proactive prevention and control,"aligning general meteorological early-warnings with event safety management.In assessment technology,it breaks the traditional single-factor analysis framework,integrating an"intensity-quantity-value"three-dimensional model for comprehensive risk evaluation,integrating a refined early warning system with region-specific management measures,this approach ensures the safe operation and sustainable development of events.In practical applications,the proposed dynamic circuit-breaking response mechanism(e.g.,event cancellation upon a red alert)was validated through situational simulations to significantly reduce heat-related injury rates and provide more forward-looking warning and response measures.Additionally,the research findings are broadly applicable to other outdoor sports and provide robust theoretical and practical tools for ensuring the safety of public sports activities amid climate change.The implications of this study extend beyond immediate applications to marathon event management.This study contributes to a broader discourse on climate change adaptation strategies in the sports and public health sectors.By offering a flexible and scalable framework,this study will enable stakeholders to tailor heat risk management strategies to diverse regional and event-specific contexts.Future research could explore the integration of real-time weather forecasting and participant physiological data to further enhance the precision and responsiveness of high-temperature early warning systems in sporting events.关键词
气候变化/马拉松赛事/体育赛事/高温暴露/湿球黑球温度/预警等级Key words
climate change/marathon events/sports event/high temperature exposure/wet bulb globe temperature/alert level分类
教育学引用本文复制引用
蔚丹丹,石勇,陈淑曼,梅煜茹..气候变暖背景下中国马拉松赛事高温暴露预警与评估[J].热带地理,2025,45(4):575-588,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42171080、41601566) （42171080、41601566）
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(21YJC630146) （21YJC630146）
