热带地理2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：691-703,13.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240780
基于防灾减灾政策文本的风暴潮灾害风险要素挖掘研究
Mining Risk Factors of Storm Surge Disasters Based on Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Policy Texts
摘要
Abstract
Disaster prevention and mitigation policy texts serve as a guidance and basis for the government to respond to disasters.They contain rich information on disaster risk factors,records the degree of damage caused by disaster hazard factors to disaster-bearing bodies,and provide disaster prevention measures.Risk factors form the foundation of a disaster risk assessment index.This study considered storm surges as an example and deconstructs risk factors into three dimensions-hazard,vulnerability,and disaster resistance capacity-by integrating disaster prevention and mitigation policy texts.Text mining techniques were used to analyze the composition and evolution characteristics of risk factors in policy contexts,with a focus on emphasizing disaster prevention and reduction at different stages.This study constructed a policy text-driven theoretical framework for disaster risk assessment,overcoming the limitations of traditional indicator systems that rely on statistical data and expert experience,and revealed the key role of institutional factors in risk formation.The results are as follows:(1)Policy texts can be used to extract a large number of storm surge risk factors,with hazard factors linked to high-frequency terms such as"sea level rise"and"typhoons,"vulnerability to"coastal areas","coastal zones","land use",etc.,and disaster resilience to"engineering defense,""financial support,"etc.(2)There are significant differences in the focus on risk factors in policy texts at different stages.Before 2010,the focus was on identifying and monitoring disaster risks.From 2010-2015,the focus was on further refining the vulnerabilities of disaster-bearing bodies.After 2015,there was greater emphasis on the role of technological development in disaster resistance.These changes reflect the gradual deepening of policymakers'understanding of storm surge disaster risks.(3)The elements extracted from the policy text,such as"astronomical tide,""land reclamation,"and"disaster insurance,"have compensated for the neglect of human intervention and institutional factors in traditional indicator systems.This study pioneered a new paradigm of policy text analysis in disaster risk assessment at the methodological level,breaking through the traditional reliance on structured data in storm surge disaster risk assessments.Policy evolution analysis revealed changes in risk concerns.关键词
防灾减灾政策/风暴潮灾害/风险要素/文本挖掘Key words
disaster prevention and mitigation policies/storm surge disasters/risk factors/text mining分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郭腾蛟,曹琦,马钰富,杨列娟..基于防灾减灾政策文本的风暴潮灾害风险要素挖掘研究[J].热带地理,2025,45(4):691-703,13.基金项目
重庆市自然科学基金项目(cstc2024ycjh-bgzxm0111) （cstc2024ycjh-bgzxm0111）
国家资助博士后研究人员计划(GZC20233615) （GZC20233615）
中国博士后科学基金(2024M754256) （2024M754256）
