农业现代化研究2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：237-247,11.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2024.1939
农村劳动力老龄化对粮食生产韧性的影响
The impacts of rural labor aging on the resilience of food production:mediating effects from the inversion perspective
摘要
Abstract
Enhancing the resilience of grain production is a critical pathway for effective response of the grain production system to uncertain factors and unknown risks,as well as an inherent requirement for high-quality development of the entire grain industry.Based on a panel data from 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government in China from 2008 to 2022(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan),this study measured the level of grain production resilience by the entropy weighting method and explored the impacts of rural labor aging on grain production resilience and its mechanisms by the uses the bidirectional fixed effect,mediating effect,and threshold effect models.Results show that:1)Rural labor aging has a positive impact on grain production resilience.2)The effects of grain production resilience in grain-producing areas and grain-producing and market balancing areas are more significant,and the geographical location presents a differentiated feature of"high in the north and low in the south".3)Rural labor aging catalyzes scale effects,mechanical effects,and service effects through the incentive mechanism,thereby improving grain production resilience.And 4)further exploration reveals that as the quality level of the labor force improves,the impacts of rural labor aging on grain production resilience shows a nonlinear increasing trend,and the growth rate gradually increases.Therefore,to improve grain production resilience,this paper suggests:encouraging farmers to transfer land moderately,promoting grain production on a large scale,improving the penetration rate of agricultural machinery,accelerating the agricultural mechanization process,improving the agricultural socialized service system and grain production efficiency,increasing investment in rural education,and expanding the group of professional farmers.关键词
农村劳动力老龄化/粮食生产韧性/规模效应/机械效应/服务效应Key words
aging of rural labor force/grain production resilience/scale effect/mechanical effect/service effect分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
崔宁波,王斯曼,董晋..农村劳动力老龄化对粮食生产韧性的影响[J].农业现代化研究,2025,46(2):237-247,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY188) （23BJY188）
黑龙江省社会科学基金项目(24JYH007).Supported by National Social Science Foundation of China(23BJY188) （24JYH007）
Heilongjiang Provincial Social Science Foundation Project(24JYH007). （24JYH007）
